Worst Ski Season Ever?

Jim,<br><br>As you guessed, I wouldn't trade my kids for anything, and certainly wouldn't call it blame for my situation affecting my freedom to get out whenever. But as was stated by a number of others here, each individual has a particular situation that impacts what it is they can accomplish under these or any other situation. There was a time when I could do as you do, and I would never begrudge you that. I appreciate your attitude in your responses and the understanding of most of the others in this thread. I think MW8...., seemed to take joy that others can't live his life, but my guess is he or his life ain't perfect either.<br><br>Regarding sharing stashes, there have been other heated threads on this site, but I think that there is much in what snoslut says, for me anyway. I do recognize that for others their human nature is to hoard and never share, and that teaching or sharing pains them greatly. I think that MW8... was not trying to inflict pain, just make a point, tell us to stop whining... I just think that the way he stated it made it sound self serving.<br><br>While my situation almost always means that I travel solo on my trips, I greatly appreciate meeting others on those trips. I try to be as safe and conservative as possible, but I always bring a transciever along just in case I bump into someone or a group that allows me to hook up. I do this even when I go to one of my "secret stashes".<br><br>Any case, in a few more years I will be travelling with my son and his shovel, and in that case I will gain the most possible satisfaction in teaching him about the Cascades. (If he is game of course!)<br><br>Alan

Alan - I hope he'll be game - that sounds like lots of fun ahead!<br><br>Wolfs - I recall part of my thinking in going to Baker during the holiday week was that they had reaped significantly more snow storm after storm, and were showing somewhat better stats than Paradise (including a vague memory of something like twice the snow in the most recent event) and of course way better stats than anywhere else. So I'm not sure that's it.<br><br>By the way, I'm not considering my exploration of this "blame." To me it's more of a potentially interesting social phenomenon that we're all part of. And my hypothesis won't change my posting behavior, which has always been a mix of "open but prudent."

Yes, Bigsnow, yes.  I do not use emoticoms (kind of a personal thing started by my brother - all this "wink-wink" stuff wasn't working for me) but read my post again: Hear the outcry - go out and enjoy yourself instead of sitting around and seeing the bad in this situation.<br><br>I grew up where a "bad snow year" meant there was no skiing at all - except at expensive ski areas filled with New Yorkers - ever tried it?  There are volcanoes up to 14,000' right next to you so go ski any time the urge hits you.  I only fear, like Lowell, that one of the reasons I moved here - year round skiing - may not be here for my children (and on a personal note I have a beautiful 1 1/2 year old in which I spend my days with - one of the pleasures of getting up at 4:30 am to go for a ski is that you're home by 9:30 am.  I work for my skiing, just like my job and other goodies)<br><br>About stash secrets on the internet - sorry, but there is nothing wrong with me not being exactly gregarious when it comes to going outside.  That's what makes us human and unique.  I like to go away from people on the weekends and free time - heck, I spend all week dealing with human horse crap.  It's the weekend and I don't want a crowd - you dig?  In a poor snow year it's harder and harder to find that free space, and it's precious to me.  And I'm sure others.<br><br>So, of course, if you wanted discussion on "the Worst Ski Season Ever", like it or not, you got it.  

MW8.... Ah yes Hunter Mtn. You just brought back memories that I would rather forget! I have been getting out, but I leave the pink jump suit at home. Since I do most of my bc skiing in the late winter/spring/summer I need to accept that I will have less trips this year.<br><br>You touched on something that others on the thread also did, and a year like this at least scares us with the potential that it shows us what it could be like if climate change is real and this year represents the future for the PNW. Is that true or not? Time will tell. No doubt even if it is fact, many good years of skiing ahead, if maybe a bit spotty now an then. But then that would only put us in a position of being more like 90% of the rest of the planet.<br><br>Alan

[quote author=MW88888888 <br>I grew up where a "bad snow year" meant there was no skiing at all - except at expensive ski areas filled with New Yorkers - ever tried it?  [/quote]<br><br><br>Ahhh, well that explains it. I grew up in the west, with big mountains like the ones you see out your window..And when a bad snow year looked even better than this one here.

Hey, enough with the Northeast skiing bashing! There IS good skiing there, even in a "bad" year, just like there is here. Case in point, this season has been one of their worst in well over a decade, and yet people have been skiing knee to chest deep pow for weeks. My brother called me yesterday to brag about his best ski day ever, at Sugarbush of all places. This from a kid that has seen his fair share of blower fluff in the Wasatch, Rockies, and Sierra. Sure, if you're a resort skier that only goes where you're told, you probably only knew boilerplate and crowds... but if you explored a bit, even at places like Hunter, you would have found some pretty damn cool sking. I've had hundreds of powder days in the east, and I'm not that old, so give it a rest.<br><br>Anyway, back to the issue at hand, this is the best question asked thus far in this thread:<br><br>

...a year like this at least scares us with the potential that it shows us what it could be like if climate change is real and this year represents the future for the PNW. Is that true or not?

<br><br>The really scary thing, for me, is the idea that snowpack in the Northwest is reaching some kind of tipping point as global temperatures rise. If average temps rise just a little bit, it doesnt seem so hard to believe that your average Cascade snowstorm (which is traditionally warm, compared to other snowy areas) could be rain more often than not. The same storm that used to add feet to the snowpack now subtracts feet from it. Whether it's anthropogenic or not, the earth IS warming, and most models I've seen predict warmer temps in the Northwest. With our wet climate and relatively low elevations, this could very quickly switch the PNW from a snow rich region to a snow poor one. <br><br>I've also seen models that predict colder temps overall in the Northeast as things heat up. The idea is that fresh water from melting ice in the Arctic dilutes the northern Gulf Stream and puts the kibosh on warm systems moving up the Atlantic seaboard. It wouldnt take a huge drop in temps in that region to support glaciers in the White Mtns or Chic Chocs ... <br><br><br>

depts.washington.edu/cwws/Outreach/Presentations/miles.pdf

check out this presentation from the lead climate researcher at UW. Lots of info, but compelling data.


And, sorry Jerm. no more east coast bashing. My only point with that is, east coasters have a little different perspective on mountains, snow and skiing than people who have lived out here all their lives.

Jerm - I too have skied great snow in NE, and I've also hiked 2 inches of ice on top of dirt on some of the highest northerly mountains during the month of January. <br><br>If you're headed back that way, say "hi" to the yellow birch glades in the northeast kingdom for me!

Jerm,<br><br>Hadn't meant my comments to be serious. I too have had great experiences in New England. <br><br>Now the Mid Atlantic....... thats another story.<br><br>Alan

Trying to catch up on my reading here...<br><br>It seems like a wide range of points of view have been aired - great discussion. I would like to add one idea related to MW88888888's first (?) post, and that is that it is possible to report useful snow/avi/skiing conditions information here without revealing exactly where you skied and thus risking an invasion of TAYers or TAY lurkers.<br><br>There are very few places that I go that I think would be at risk of invasion AND where that invasion would diminish my skiing experience. When I post a TR from one of those places (and I always do) I simply include all of the typical information I normally give except that which would allow someone to localize the place exactly. What's useful? General location, slope elevation and aspect, weather, and snowpack, avi, and skiing quality details. This information can be very useful for other skiers, even if they can't pinpoint the exact location of the secret stash.<br><br>I would guess that MW88888888 comes here, like most people, mainly for the snow/avi/skiing info which is so generously provided by TRs members who post about their ski trips. It seems to me that a good case could be made for the argument that people who use the information posted here have an obligation to contribute information as well, when they have such information. This system works only by people both giving and taking. If everyone here was a taker and nobody were to share their information, then there would be no information here for anyone to benefit from, and thus there would be no trip reports forum at all.<br><br>

Charles, very true.<br><br>I find that I feel better when I post a day or two here and there when the info isn't "compromising" my good snow spots. I don't feel bad for not posting for a while in a season like this, 'cause your wonderful Telemetry Index was really why I started to visit this site. The TR's where really extra and mostly confirmed what I know from slope angle, altitude, temperature and history in the numbers in plane view for everyone. Really, when yout hink about it, there really isn't too much you could add in a Trip Report that the wonderful telemetry sites already don't say. The numbers don't lie. You just don't want to say where in northern mountains, central or south mountians you are if you enjoy being the only car in the car park.<br><br>Anyway, I enjoy reading/writing about this great sport and will do so in the future. Hopefully with better snow reports. I'm heading to Cali at the end of the month, so I'm sure the tide will change!

Your view of telemetry vs reports is interesting, because despite all of the time I have spent looking at telemetry and correlating it with field conditions, I still look to the reports as the most accurate info about skiing conditions. The telemetry is valuable, of course, but I've been tricked into expecting certain conditions, only to find them quite different, too many times to be really confident using only the telemetry. But everybody has their own best system...<br><br>I should add that when I say "skiing conditions" I'm not trying to ignore all of the snowboarders. I just find it cumbersome to keep typing "skiing/boarding conditions", but that's what I mean - the quality of the snow for sliding.

I simply include all of the typical information I normally give except that which would allow someone to localize the place exactly.

<br><br>This works for me, too. I often try to report in such a way that those who already know the place can figure out where I've been, while those who don't can still use the stability and access information.<br><br>

It seems to me that a good case could be made for the argument that people who use the information posted here have an obligation to contribute information as well, when they have such information.

<br><br>I agree. Strangely enough, several of us were discussing this phenomenon just the other day. Not only do I believe that those who take have an obligation to also provide for others, but I feel that the act of giving to a community (which is what we are here) is beneficial to the giver as well. <br><br>

 Really, when yout hink about it, there really isn't too much you could add in a Trip Report that the wonderful telemetry sites already don't say.  The numbers don't lie.

<br><br>Actually, I often find that the numbers lie...or at best, obfuscate. Even when the telemetry sites are in perfect operating condition (a big "if"), what they report is often quite localized: c.f., our recent discussion of wildly disparate temperature readings depending the varying heights of temperature guages off the ground. As well, some sites don't provide for wind speed or direction, which alone can have a lot to do with where I choose to tour on a given day. <br><br>I've learned about lots of good route possibilities reading first Brent's board, then Charles'. I've tried to share ideas commensurately. For the most part, I think fears of the crowds which will materialize once we post trip reports are greatly exaggerated. Again, last weekend we skied lots of plush, untrammeled powder on one of Burdorfer's routes, and on the return I looked across the valley at another, which appeared entirely free of tracks....three weeks after our last snowfall. We've all got our favorite, convenient stashes, but even in the depths of an atrocious snow year, the available terrain is effectively limitless.<br><br>One addendum to my constant harping on how nice the skiing's been recently: I do recognize that there are important differences between a lover of the alpine like myself and those who like to tootle along amongst the giant old trees, where snowpack is indeed depressingly limited this winter. <br><br>enjoy,<br><br>Mark

And, sorry Jerm.  no more east coast bashing.  My only point with that is, east coasters have a little different perspective on mountains, snow and skiing than people who have lived out here all their lives.

<br><br>Exactly. For many who grew up here, the glass seems half empty. If you grew up elsewhere, the glass may seem half full.

On more than one occasion (ok, really like every time I click into my skis, three pins or snowboard) I'm surprised at how much better the snow is than the #'s on the telemetry say.  But then I re-look at the numbers and think about it...'so at the parking lot at 3,000 the temp was 36 and precip was .5 inches when I arrived, yet at 5,000 the temp remained at 31.  Get to the parking lot and raining pretty bad and expect horrible conditions, only to find damp powder turning to thick powder - glad I brought the snowboard- to nice turns at top, look again and see it was 31 at 3,000 for .25 of the precip at 3,000 so the carpet of powder I should have seen really was there in the numbers...'...I realize the nuances of the numbers that could be read into them if you know the location at the telemetry site, the slope angle, altitude, etc, and if you have been at those places enough than you can get a pretty good read of Baker, Stevens, Blewet and Snoqualmie without leaving your house (the places I watch religiously). <br> <br>Mark, you're absolutely right, the numbers "mislead" me more often than not.  Most of the time because of my own pre-dispositions.  I'm no expert, that's for sure, and I've a lifetime of learning about snow around here.  What's been engraved in my head about PNW snow is that it is thick and heavy.  Truths are emerging that it's just "untracked".  I love the amount of skiing here; a person could spend lifetime learning about it.  <br> <br>So, when I read in a trip report: "snow was better than I expected", well, that happens to me all the time!  That's what I mean by TR's confirm what's already in the numbers!  (not to mention when the Baker site says 20" and everywhere else in the state is a big fat goose-egg.  It's no wonder Baker has had a windfall of skiing this year - that's certainly where the goods have been plentiful)   <br> <br>Edited to add: to further elaborate my "it's in the numbers" - The Telemetry sites are just one data point in a series of weather forecast tools I use: 1) WSDOT for current conditions at pass level and (wonder of technology - a picture of conditions!), snowfall predictions and whether I need to put it into 4WD on the way up; 2) The good ol' weather channel for radar loops on Alaska gulf and Pacific and close ups of Washington state 3) The State mtn forecast which gives wind direction, an honest discussion of current future and past conditions, and is down right funny sometimes (anyone catch the "never-never land" comment on storms forecasted for PNW?") and of course 4) telemetry sites.   <br> <br>I should reference all my statements on the Web 'cause of all the smart people on this site who can break down an argument so well! <br> <br>If you've come this far, read a little more: can't help but comment on East Coast - World Class skiing in Appl. chain, don't let anyone tell you different. NH, ME, VT, NH, etc and I'm sure even Virginia when the snow is right.  It's where I learned to love BC skiing (in the Powder of Vermont and the Steeps of NH if you want to know).  But, the elevation is the killer there; it's just too low and rain too often in a bad year.  <br> <br>And that's 'Hunta', Alan, which was a four hour drive for me when I was a teenager.  Ah, memories.<br>

<br><br>Exactly. For many who grew up here, the glass seems half empty. If you grew up elsewhere, the glass may seem half full.

<br><br>I think that one thing that we all share regardless of where we grew up is a sense that the mountains here are quite special.

Well, after hearing all opinions and weighing the data, I have reached the conclusion that indeed, barring an unlikely late season dump, this is the worst ski season ever.<br><br>We may be able to make some exceptions for those that grew up skiing in the east coast, or those who have sat out substantial portions of a really good season due to injury.<br><br>Thanks for playing. 9 months to go til the cold smoke....

Hey, the earliest spring skiing season ever!! ;D ;D<br><br>(... and most likely the shortest. &gt; &gt; )

Wow, quite a hot topic here!<br><br>One thing nobody seems to have mentioned is that the region of record-low snowpack this season as of March 1 is largely confined to WA state, perhaps extending north to Vancouver Island and south to Mount Hood. However, in most of the rest of BC and OR, although this is a poor snow year, it is far above the record lows of 1980-81 or 1976-77 or other earlier years. Meanwhile, the CA Cascades and Sierra are enjoying a snowpack which is near-average to well-above average. See my newly-updated Cascade Snowfall and Snowdepth report for March 1.<br><br>People have mentioned finding better snow conditions up high. The snowpack well-above treeline (above 6000-7000 ft) in the WA Cascades this season is probably not as bad as 1976-77 or the severe drought years during the 1930s and 1940s, although there is really no way to verify that. There was certainly plenty of snowfall up high during the 4 major Pineapple Expresses this season, when heavy rain washed away the snowpack at the various measurement sites and ski areas (all of which are located below treeline).<br><br>Throughout the whole Cascade Range (and the entire West Coast), 1976-77 remains unique in having set record-low snowdepths and winter-season precipitation values at hundreds of measurement sites over a vast geographic range, extending from southwestern BC all the way to southern California. Why is this important? Well, at least this year, you have the choice to head south or east (or even north, not to mention UP) for vastly improved snowpack and snow conditions. This may be small comfort to the Seattle-based weekend warrior with limited time and energy, but road trips are fun and it's always nice to broaden one's horizons beyond the local hills.<br>

Its almost like someone put a curse on WA this season. Many other areas are having an exceptional season at WA's expense. I guess it was just our turn to be on the short end........

According to the models that I posted above, we may be coming up on the short end more often in the future. I'm only betting on the fact that those results forecast only trends, I'm hoping we get to experiance many more anaomolous years not predicted by weather models.

I'm hoping that further north up the coast the snowpack is doing better than here...I'm leaving for a traverse of the waddington range in six weeks and my buddies and I still aren't entirely convinced we're going to find the glaciers in decent shape.<br>Been watching these snow pillow tables for the past months-<br>wlapwww.gov.bc.ca/rfc/river_forecast/spdcoastal.html

Everything around Vancouver looks really grim, but somewhere between Vancouver and Bella Coola it looks like the mountains have been getting the usual loads of snow this winter.
Unless we hear something definite about the area's snowpack, we're probably going for it...hopefully we'll find winter up there somewhere.

According to the models that I posted above, we may be coming up on the short end more often in the future. I'm only betting on the fact that those results forecast only trends, I'm hoping we get to experiance many more anaomolous years not predicted by weather models.

<br><br><br>I used to hear from my parents "it sure used to snow a lot more when I was a kid". I then thought, "yea there sure seems to have been more snow when I was a kid too". The problem is, the records don't prove this to be true, but I think its more selective memory. When I was a kid growing up in Yakima we had some good snow years, cold years, and some warm years. The season with the most snow on the ground in Yakima at one time is not the 1930s, 1950s, but 1997 when they had 4 1/2' of snow......well past my childhood. The cascades have had some pretty big snow years in the past 10 years too........ The only trends I see is that the weather gods can't seem to predict the season very well. <br>The past 8 seasons we had snow totals on Snoqualmie as follows:<br><br>602"<br>362"<br>603" <br>427"<br>300"<br>514"<br>235"<br>373"<br><br>Do I see a trend? The only trend I see is that you never know what kind of season you will get....... The 1950s were our best snow decade in WA, but the worse snow decade was the 1940s. I'm positive next season will be a normal snowfall and this season will be just a bad memory. I'm sure another one will come along in the future just as they have been here in the past. <br><br>I just thought.....Mt StHelens was blowing its top in the summer of 1980 (followed by a horrible snow season 80/81). This year Mt StHelens is rumbling again and again we had a bad snow season...... Kinda funny, huh...? Blame it on St Helens!!!

The people that do climate prediction take alot more scientific approach to their work than the last 8 seasons of snowpack at Snoqualmie. They try to eliminate natural variability caused by the PDO and ENSO events, and when they do this, they show warming trends for the last century.<br><br>One thing to consider is that Cascade snowfall is in a very delicate balance with temperature, and it could just be possible that we are reaching the tipping point only now. One interesting test to this theory would be to look at the occurence of snowfall at lower elevations in WA over the last 100 years. I would imagine that if we are reaching some tipping point, casued by increasing temps, that the tipping point is moving higher in elevation over time, and thus we would have already experianced this point in lower elevation areas. Just a thought, no data to show for it.

One thing to consider is that Cascade snowfall is in a very delicate balance with temperature, and it could just be possible that we are reaching the tipping point only now. One interesting test to this theory would be to look at the occurence of snowfall at lower elevations in WA over the last 100 years. I would imagine that if we are reaching some tipping point, casued by increasing temps, that the tipping point is moving higher in elevation over time, and thus we would have already experianced this point in lower elevation areas. Just a thought, no data to show for it.

<br><br>I'm pretty sure this has been done, at least for the Sierra (where they have better long term records; memory is a little foggy though). See Philip Mote references from other threads. As I remember, your intuition Juan is correct. Dr. Mote has also gone through great lengths to show that our slowly declining snow pack is mainly linked to warmer temperatures and not less precipitation (when you look at the entire West, over all the available data, a conclusive signal emerges).