How is this season shaping up?

How good/bad is this season compared to typical?

Referring to PNW skiing.

Only been at it for 4 years now but this has definitely been the worst so far. A few good storms can turn it around though and we have 3.5-4 months left before the main powder window closes.

It's the worst that I can remember in the 24 years that I've been sliding on snow around here.

Last year was bad because we had the high pressure that stalled on us in December and January but at least we had enough snow early to carry us through that. Previous to this the worst in my experience was 2004-2005 when I rode my mountain bike more than my snowboard.

The old timers talk about the winter of 1976 as being bad but the snotel sites that I watch are below the historical minimum snow level.

That said, we still have plenty of snow to play just not as much as we're used to.

Here are some of the worse Dec snowfalls since 1976 for Snoqualmie Pass. 96" is an average December.

1976 = 19"
1989 = 13" (followed by 159" in Jan)
2002 = 35"
2009 = 22"
2011 = 24"
2013 = 15"
2014 = 25"

2009 and 2011 had more then 5' of snow in November so it was not as noticeable. We could get dumped on this month or maybe not, who knows? The 1940's was the worst average snowfall decade followed by the 1950's with the most.

hyak.net/snowfallhist.html

link

The fit certainly changes over the last decade. I could experiment with different fits, but it's certainly a reasonable indicator (as is ENSO/el nino).

PDO this year for oct-nov is 1.6, about the highest since 1934...  High PDO is generally bad for Cascade snowpack (note the reversed axes). 

background on PDO

Balls!!!