Updates??- 2 climbers, 2 campers overdue...Rainier

If you've never browsed Accidents in North American Mountaineering, the annual compilation by the American Alpine Club and the Alpine Club of Canada, it's worth a look. There's much to be learned in it, and the reports are written in a dispassionate and analytical style that focuses on the causes, but generally doesn't pass judgment on the victims. It's useful for aspiring and experienced mountaineers and respectful of the victims and their survivors.

Perhaps there are lessons in there for TAY as well.

My condolences with the families and friends of the presumably lost but I'm with Amar here.  As a survivor of a fatal avalanche and a witness to the peculiar burping sound an avalanche victim makes while CPR is being performed, everything should be on the table.  I'm hoping no one else has to go there for whatever reason.

Having taken part in the search on the 23rd, I will add that the only thing we are capable of critiquing are the circumstances surrounding their decision to leave the parking lot. Unlike CSI, SAR operations do not attempt to impose judgement on the actions of the lost to avoid closing the searchers to all possibilities of where & how they went.

Live victims of accidents can recount their decision making which builds a foundation for others to study and use to improve their decision making. Hindsight does not improve one's ability to error correct in the field. Checklists and constant communication about changes in conditions(people & weather) help people make better decisions. Most decisions that end poorly often fail to accurately assess the consequences of the risk taken. The more we educate ourselves to do this well, the better our outcomes will be.

As I flip through old copies of Accidents in North American Mountaineering I think the lesson it teaches is to focus on preparation, skills, and decisions but to avoid speculating about the victims' intelligence or character.

Its always easier to get something constructive out of an accident like this after a little time has passed. That runs against human nature of course. But early reports are always lacking in facts and clouded by strong feelings.

What's worse, the news media makes a living capitalizing on our gut response to things like this, not on getting the facts right. They sell ad impressions, not good information, so you have to look elsewhere for anything really constructive. As a society we really don't make a habit of having thoughtful discussions around topics like this. The discussion here is definitely an improvement and I'm grateful for it.

Personally, I'm thinking about a friend who was lucky to make it back from a winter ascent or Rainier, minus a couple body parts (hardly seems to bother him now...). The best thing about that whole experience was that he got to tell other folks like me what his mistakes were, AND what he did during the accident that may have helped. Mattski is right. That was a few years ago, but the story is still paying dividends.

I am really pleased to see the common sense of many of the skiers here on TAY.... After reading phrases like "armchair quarterback" here quite often, I thought most of the skiers here were too politically correct to see that discussing the facts of these tragedys, while sometimes painful, can help other people avoid mistakes of their own and practice safer alpine decision making....

I know I have learned to pay closer attention to telemetry from one highly discussed incident last year.... Thankfully, I have someone I trust to discuss the seasonal snowpack with as it developes and compile an evolving acessment that keeps changing and being re-evaluated.

I had written a very long post on this subject yesterday,.... but it's been covered by other people here posting their own thoughts.

The only other thing I want to say is.... If I die in the backcountry or have some incident occur to me relating to my decision making, snowpack evaluation, or route choice... I would like my mistakes discussed freely here or anywhere that it may help someone else avoid making the same mistakes I made....

Well, it's good to see the topic of this thread has shifted to an interesting discussion on how we as winter outdoor enthusiasts react to presumed tragic events in the mountains.  Maybe the title should be changed.
The fact is, as I understand it, at this point we don't know anything about what these individuals encountered, their decision making process, or a single mistake that they may have made.
Sorry, but I see no reason to fault the two properly equipped pairs who headed out from the parking lot to enjoy a wintry weekend in the mountains with a forecast of cold temps and snow showers.
Yes, it is beneficial to learn from others experiences and mistakes once we know what happened.
Let's learn from, and evaluate what we know actually happened.
Is this correct?:
-Two parties of two are missing
-Their last known location was the Paradise parking lot
-Two went to camp on the Muir snowfield, two planned to attempt a summit
-Both parties were properly equipped
-There is currently an extended, limited, and continuous search

Please correct or add to these known events, as I would like to know more about this situation out of concern for the missing, and an interest in learning to be a better prepared winter traveller.
Thanks

Well, that's the dilemma, isn't it: if you hold back on any analysis or criticism of an incident out of respect for family and friends, then you may lose the chance to publicize important lessons which could be learned from the incident.

Analysis and criticism are entirely different discussions, and the difference has nothing to do with frankness. To say that 4 people headed into the alpine despite a forecast for deteriorating weather-- and to provide and explain that forecast-- is one thing. To say that one can not understand how any reasonable person would ever choose to do such a thing is another.

Kneel Turner, you're basically correct on everything, except that they were last seen hiking towards Camp Muir. A descending ranger randomly took a photo of the two parties, separated by a few hundred yards, making their way up. Also, not sure about Sork and Jin Seol, but Mark and Michelle had neither snow shoes nor skis.

Adding to kneel turner's list (and trying to wear my ANAM hat) I think we can add:

- Bad weather forecast
- Failure to turn back in the face of bad weather
- Inadequate equipment (based on what ryanl said about the campers)

That's the sort of stuff that ANAM talks about all the time.

To say that one can not understand how any reasonable person would ever choose to do such a thing is another.

Point taken, I should have phrased that better, to avoid commenting on the persons and comment only on their decision -- my bad. I will edit my inappropriate remarks in that post now. I was not actually planning to comment further in this thread, but I guess I will.

I meant that it would be an unreasonable, very poor decision to choose to begin a winter summit ascent attempt given the forecasts copied above. The decision to go snow camping on the Muir Snowfield in the conditions forecast there is nearly as unreasonable too. Those forecasts are not "snow camping" conditions appropriate for (relatively) inexperienced people from sunny warm climates like Atlanta and San Diego, they are brutal winter survival conditions given the combination of plummeting temps and high winds. I would have thought that people on TAY who backcountry ski and ski mountaineer frequently would be well aware of that, but based on the rosy interpretation of the Rainier forecast by kneel turner and others, that is not true.

Ryan, I trust your judgment and experience a lot, even though we have very different risk tolerances -- but I would be totally disappointed in you if you ever decided to make a Rainier attempt into such a forecast, and even more so if you did not return because you did not turn around soon enough. We'd all be sitting around saying, "What was Ryan thinking?!?!?" Our shock and sadness would be magnified, because it would have been an easily preventable situation just by you doing some other trip instead, and leaving the Rainier ascent for a better weather day.

I may perhaps come across as cold and heartless in my comments in this thread, but I am really sad about this incident -- that these four people, random strangers though they are to me, have gone missing and are presumed dead when the whole situation was so easily preventable by looking at the proper forecasts in advance and choosing not to embark on their intended trips at that time.

Sorry, but I see no reason to fault the two properly equipped pairs who headed out from the parking lot to enjoy a wintry weekend in the mountains with a forecast of cold temps and snow showers.
...
Please correct or add to these known events, as I would like to know more about this situation out of concern for the missing, and an interest in learning to be a better prepared winter traveller.
Thanks

Wow, if that's your interpretation of the forecasts copied above, then we do have a problem here, and this discussion is even more important to have. Since you ask to be corrected, I will do so. Please take my remarks in the educational spirit in which they are intended.

That forecast is NOT just "cold temps and snow showers", it is extreme cold (about as cold as it ever gets here in any given year) and extreme winds. Really, it's only the winds that matter at all. If temps were 0 to -20 °F with calm or very light winds, more than likely both parties would have been fine, no search would have been needed, and the public would never have heard of them. But high winds change everything above treeline. They create a ground blizzard, the most intense and disorienting type of whiteout, much worse than fog. This intense whiteout hampers your balance and ability to even stand upright, even more so when combined with the force of the wind. Movement and navigation quickly become impossible, and finding one's way back to the Paradise parking lot, even by retracing a GPS track, may not be possible.

This was really a terrible forecast to be attempting a multiday trip above treeline on Rainier. A day trip attempt to Muir on Friday January 13 would have been within acceptable safety margins (although the weather actually deteriorated slightly more quickly than forecast that day, as high clouds and high winds moved in quickly in the afternoon). But remaining up above treeline beyond Friday was so needlessly risky. See the telemetry data below for what the actual conditions were -- just BRUTAL winds, definitely NOT just "cold temps and snow showers".

The single most important weather-related thing that I've learned over the course of 15 years of ski mountaineering, with well over 100 summits of Cascade volcanoes and well over 100 trips to Camp Muir, is that the wind is everything, often really the only thing that matters, high above treeline. It is what can most quickly buildup and ruin your day and endanger your life, even on an otherwise sunny and nice day. I've learned to avoid ascending into any forecast of high winds on Rainier or other isolated volcanoes which always magnify windy conditions.

And the important point is that such a forecast was publicly available for both parties to read -- whether either party actually chose to look at it will never be known unless they are found alive. But it's still ascending into the face of a poor forecast even if you chose to ignore or not seek a forecast that is publicly available to you and to everyone.

Although we don't know what forecasts these parties looked at, it is a sad fact that many parties climbing Rainier or heading to Muir do not look at the proper forecasts: the NWS Rainier recreational forecast which is available twice-a-day year-round, supplemented by the NWAC mountain forecast during the 5 months (November-April) that it is available. This lack of using proper forecasts is done either by ignorance (they don't know of them) or choice (inexplicable), and many parties rely instead on the NWS point forecasts or even TV weather to base their trip planning decisions on. That is not good, since those forecasts do not provide an accurate picture of the winds.


[size=small](Minor edits to fix spelling errors.)[/size]

Since I did not post it with the earlier forecasts, here is the Camp Muir NWAC telemetry covering the period in question from Friday January 13 to Monday January 16, and continuing until the wind gauge rimes over and stops spinning on January 18 (there is also a period on January 15 when it briefly appears to be stuck). The predictions of the NWS Rainier forecasts for temperatures and winds are verified quite well (the forecasts give winds in the free air, and wind speeds usually become even higher where they have to flow around a large obstruction like Mount Rainier). It is easy to see why any party would get into distress under these conditions.


[size=small]
Northwest Weather and Avalanche Center MOUNT RAINIER RECREATIONAL FORECAST
Camp Muir, Mt Rainier National Park, Washington NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
400 AM PST FRI JAN 13 2012
Wind gages unheated and may rime
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
MM/DD Hour Temp RH Wind Wind Wind Wind Solar TODAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
PST F % Min Avg Max Dir W/m2 REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH RAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
10110' 10110' 10110' 10110' 10110' 10110' 10110' NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW

---

TO THE PARK SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
1 13 500 24 26 2 5 9 74 0 SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY
1 13 600 26 11 1 6 16 280 0 AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
1 13 700 27 7 2 8 17 242 0 SUNDAY AS THE COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION LOWERS THE
1 13 800 27 11 2 8 22 23 8 SNOW LEVEL TO BELOW 500 FEET. COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
1 13 900 27 24 2 9 18 310 51 NEXT WEEK WITH A POSSIBILITY OF LOWLAND SNOW AT TIMES.
1 13 1000 27 16 2 8 19 297 239
1 13 1100 25 18 1 6 15 223 279 .FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. FREEZING LEVEL 6500 FEET.
1 13 1200 26 20 2 14 25 224 318 .FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. FREEZING LEVEL 7000 FEET.
1 13 1300 24 24 13 23 34 227 379 .SATURDAY...RAIN AND SNOW CHANGING TO SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL 3000 FEET.
1 13 1400 24 24 20 30 39 238 286 .SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
1 13 1500 23 57 24 37 52 250 166 .SUNDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
1 13 1600 25 45 34 49 70 238 46
1 13 1700 24 45 29 50 67 245 8 TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECASTS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.
1 13 1800 24 36 44 58 80 246 0
1 13 1900 23 36 40 66 84 243 0 FRI FRI SAT SAT SUN
1 13 2000 23 41 47 67 89 240 0 NIGHT NIGHT
1 13 2100 22 44 44 73 90 240 0
1 13 2200 22 42 47 67 84 247 0 SUMMIT (14411 FT) 8 6 -2 -24 -26
1 13 2300 21 38 48 70 90 244 0 W 48 W 71 W 91 W 48 W 30
1 14 0 20 48 54 70 83 253 0
1 14 100 20 51 49 70 87 252 0 CAMP MUIR(10188 FT) 24 23 5 -4 -4
1 14 200 20 56 54 75 90 247 0 W 30 W 57 W 52 W 40 W 25
1 14 300 17 55 61 79 97 244 0
1 14 400 16 60 59 76 96 244 0 PARADISE (5420 FT) 43 29 35 19 22

---

W 4 W 11 SW 17 SW 10 SW 8
1 14 500 14 75 51 81 103 249 0
1 14 600 10 94 55 81 106 248 0 LONGMIRE (2700 FT) 41 31 36 23 26
1 14 700 10 94 57 77 93 252 0 W 2 NW 8 SW 14 SW 10 SW 8
1 14 800 10 94 60 76 95 246 1
1 14 900 10 94 58 71 84 211 22 ++ TEMPERATURES AND WIND FOR THE SUMMIT AND CAMP MUIR ARE AVERAGE
1 14 1000 10 93 53 69 82 174 93 CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE FREE AIR AT THOSE ELEVATIONS.
1 14 1100 10 93 68 80 95 174 138 ++ TEMPERATURES FOR PARADISE AND LONGMIRE ARE THE EXPECTED HIGHS AND
1 14 1200 9 93 82 94 108 174 156 LOWS. WIND IS THE AVERAGE WIND EXPECTED DURING THAT PERIOD.
1 14 1300 7 92 42 75 97 174 271
1 14 1400 3 91 48 77 99 174 346 .EXTENDED FORECAST...
1 14 1500 -2 89 38 71 92 174 149
1 14 1600 -4 88 24 48 74 174 103 .SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS.
1 14 1700 -4 87 14 51 74 174 16 .MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
1 14 1800 -6 87 30 54 75 174 0 .TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
1 14 1900 -7 86 26 46 63 174 0 .WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL 2000 FEET.
1 14 2000 -6 87 14 41 61 174 0
1 14 2100 -7 86 22 47 71 174 0
1 14 2200 -7 86 25 49 71 174 0
1 14 2300 -6 87 12 33 53 174 0
1 15 0 -6 86 23 41 57 174 0 MOUNT RAINIER RECREATIONAL FORECAST
1 15 100 -8 86 34 43 56 174 0 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1 15 200 -8 86 11 31 47 174 0 425 AM PST SAT JAN 14 2012
1 15 300 -8 86 13 29 42 174 0
1 15 400 -7 86 17 33 46 174 0 .SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS

---

MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT A COOL AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
1 15 500 -7 86 13 26 39 174 0 WASHINGTON LOWERING THE SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO NEAR THE SURFACE. THE
1 15 600 -7 86 18 26 36 174 0 COOL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING SNOW
1 15 700 -7 86 18 23 28 174 0 SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
1 15 800 -7 86 12 24 33 174 3
1 15 900 -7 86 17 25 32 174 46 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
1 15 1000 -6 86 26 32 42 174 149 EVENING...
1 15 1100 -6 87 20 32 41 174 212
1 15 1200 -5 87 17 25 31 174 277 .SATURDAY...SNOW CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LATE MORNING.
1 15 1300 -5 87 16 24 33 174 346 SNOW LEVEL 3000 FEET LOWERING DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOON.
1 15 1400 -6 86 15 22 34 174 272 NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION 3 TO 6 INCHES.
1 15 1500 -6 86 14 21 27 174 174 .SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 4 INCHES.
1 15 1600 -6 86 5 16 22 174 89 .SUNDAY...SNOW SHOWERS.
1 15 1700 -5 87 2 9 18 174 13 .SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
1 15 1800 -6 86 0 1 6 174 0 .MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
1 15 1900 -6 86 0 0 0 174 0
1 15 2000 -7 86 0 0 0 174 0 TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECASTS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.
1 15 2100 -6 86 0 0 0 174 0
1 15 2200 -9 85 0 0 0 174 0 SAT SAT SUN SUN MON
1 15 2300 -8 85 0 0 0 174 0 NIGHT NIGHT
1 16 0 -8 85 0 6 16 174 0
1 16 100 -9 85 0 4 16 174 0 SUMMIT (14411 FT) -1 -24 -26 -25 -21
1 16 200 -8 86 0 2 6 174 0 W 100 W 60 W 40 NW 45 W 70
1 16 300 -6 87 0 4 14 174 0
1 16 400 -7 86 2 8 21 174 0 CAMP MUIR(10188 FT) 5 -4 -4 -7 -3

---

W 75 W 45 W 35 W 45 W 60
1 16 500 -7 86 1 10 22 174 0
1 16 600 -7 85 10 22 40 174 0 PARADISE (5420 FT) 29 15 21 10 19
1 16 700 -7 86 13 21 36 174 0 W 15 SW 10 W 5 W 5 W 10
1 16 800 -8 86 13 27 42 174 5
1 16 900 -7 86 27 37 47 174 46 LONGMIRE (2700 FT) 31 19 24 17 23
1 16 1000 -5 87 14 28 42 174 252 CALM CALM CALM CALM CALM
1 16 1100 -5 87 12 35 57 174 335
1 16 1200 -5 87 36 56 72 174 242 ++ TEMPERATURES AND WIND FOR THE SUMMIT AND CAMP MUIR ARE AVERAGE
1 16 1300 -5 87 50 62 77 174 189 CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE FREE AIR AT THOSE ELEVATIONS.
1 16 1400 -5 87 46 59 78 174 159 ++ TEMPERATURES FOR PARADISE AND LONGMIRE ARE THE EXPECTED HIGHS AND
1 16 1500 -5 87 21 43 64 174 101 LOWS. WIND IS THE AVERAGE WIND EXPECTED DURING THAT PERIOD.
1 16 1600 -5 87 43 55 66 174 38
1 16 1700 -4 87 25 53 66 174 10 .EXTENDED FORECAST...
1 16 1800 -4 87 44 53 63 174 0
1 16 1900 -4 87 39 53 62 174 0 .MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
1 16 2000 -4 88 49 58 69 174 0 .TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
1 16 2100 -4 88 50 59 71 174 0 .WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL 1500 FEET.
1 16 2200 -3 88 50 59 68 174 0 .WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL 3000 FEET.
1 16 2300 -3 88 54 62 71 174 0
1 17 0 -3 88 49 66 77 174 0
1 17 100 -2 88 62 70 90 174 0
1 17 200 -2 88 54 70 85 174 0
1 17 300 -2 88 62 75 95 174 0
1 17 400 -2 88 52 72 94 174 0

---

1 17 500 -2 88 56 74 88 174 0
1 17 600 -2 88 52 70 88 174 0
1 17 700 -2 88 57 69 79 174 0
1 17 800 -2 88 51 72 90 174 2
1 17 900 -2 88 58 83 100 174 21
1 17 1000 -2 88 46 70 89 174 65
1 17 1100 -2 88 49 74 90 174 116
1 17 1200 -3 88 47 74 99 174 155
1 17 1300 -4 87 53 80 115 174 183
1 17 1400 -3 88 24 63 107 174 155
1 17 1500 -4 87 38 68 107 174 118
1 17 1600 -4 87 23 55 84 174 89
1 17 1700 -3 88 22 60 106 174 17
1 17 1800 -4 87 18 55 94 174 0
1 17 1900 -3 88 22 59 92 174 0
1 17 2000 -2 88 20 62 108 174 0
1 17 2100 -0 89 33 69 99 174 0
1 17 2200 0 89 14 67 101 174 0
1 17 2300 0 89 16 68 96 174 0
1 18 0 1 90 29 65 99 174 0
1 18 100 3 90 9 51 82 174 0
1 18 200 8 92 47 72 98 174 0
1 18 300 10 93 75 95 113 174 0
1 18 400 8 93 74 96 114 174 0

---

1 18 500 9 93 69 82 93 174 0
1 18 600 10 93 65 75 86 174 0
1 18 700 10 93 55 82 104 174 0
1 18 800 12 94 65 81 94 174 1
1 18 900 14 95 63 79 93 174 13
1 18 1000 16 95 67 83 93 174 37
1 18 1100 17 96 71 83 95 174 66
1 18 1200 19 96 73 86 97 174 93
1 18 1300 19 96 63 82 96 174 101
1 18 1400 19 97 20 63 88 174 74
1 18 1500 20 97 0 1 30 174 48
1 18 1600 20 97 0 0 0 174 22
1 18 1700 19 96 0 0 0 174 5
1 18 1800 19 96 0 0 0 174 0
1 18 1900 18 96 0 0 0 174 0
1 18 2000 18 96 0 0 0 174 0
1 18 2100 17 96 0 0 0 174 0
1 18 2200 18 96 0 0 &nb

Thanks Amar. Lots to think about.

As I read your excellent points about the wind, it occurred to me that one of the under-appreciated pieces of equipment for winter mountaineering is a pair of goggles.  In high wind and blowing snow without goggles, you're screwed. You could have all the best clothing, skis or snowshoes, and shelter, but if you can't see, you can't move.

It took me a while to learn this, even on mellow winter ski trips. For traveling above timberline on Mt Rainier, it's even more critical. I suspect that many snow campers and visitors from other climates have no idea of this hazard.

Amar, I would also point out that the Mt. Rainier Rec Forecast is on the MRNP telephone answering machine (roads & weather); is posted at the Nisqually Entrance, and must also be available (I hope, but do not know) at Longmire where (I, at least, in the past, got my camping permit).

Yes Amar, thanks for this. It was interesting to hear your points on wind, and ground blizzards. I've said for as long as I can remember that wind is my least favorite element.

I agree with Amar about the winds above timberline at Rainier and with those who suggested that the 'destination' nature of the climbs was a factor.  It seems that many experienced climbers from California & the Rockies underestimate this mountain, having climbed to similar elevations in their home ranges.  Climatically, Rainier would almost be like a 20,000 foot summit in those locations, since it rises about 8000 feet above treeline, twice as much as they're used to.

The different physical geography of volcanos may be a factor also.  Many small ridges merge, sometimes subtly, on the ascent and the wrong one can easily be chosen when descending, even in fair weather.

The many past similar accidents on the Muir snowfield have often resulted in the victims being wind-driven east of their intended route onto Paradise Glacier and into the Cowlitz drainages.  (This is one of several cases where Rainier glaciers don't feed the streams with the same name).  I recall a guy separated from his winter party near Muir in the 70's who knocked on the Ohanapecosh ranger's door twelve days later. 

^^^^Hopefully that is what will happen in this case...maybe wander in somewhere at some point. Not likely, but possible.

Ugh, I hadn't heard it called a ground blizzard before but the whiteouts in that type of condition and particularly on Rainier are really something. I recall stopping in one of those and then being disoriented enough to push off uphill and fall. I literally lost track of which way down hill was in the time we had stopped to chat about how bad viability had become. If I remember right we actually backtracked up to find our uphill tracks again in order to follow them on our way back down (a skill that has saved me on more than on occasion). Luckily it hadn't filled in yet. In the spot we were I think the concern was that we might accidentally head into the Nisqually. If retreating from Muir and not familiar with the route I could see that following a downhill route of least resistance in that kind of disorientated state could place you in some bad terrain.

The single most important weather-related thing that I've learned over the course of 15 years of ski mountaineering, with well over 100 summits of Cascade volcanoes and well over 100 trips to Camp Muir, is that the wind is everything, often really the only thing that matters, high above treeline. It is what can most quickly buildup and ruin your day and endanger your life, even on an otherwise sunny and nice day. I've learned to avoid ascending into any forecast of high winds on Rainier or other isolated volcanoes which always magnify windy conditions.

I'm wondering at what speed winds would you consider aborting a trip, also considering the predicted values are averages?

I would be interested in hearing Amar's standard as well. I have been caught in blizzards above Paradise and it can be scary. I have also climbed above Panorama Point on my hands and knees because i (and the two with me) couldn't stand up with the skis on our packs. So, for me, it is an interaction between precipitation (snow) and wind. If there is snow forecast with winds gusting above 30 mph, I stay home (after a very unnerving experience trying to climb out of the back bowl with snow being deposited so fast that I had to keep shifting my ascent and by the time I got to the top I thought I better dig a snow cave--the winds weren't that great, but given the powder [ground blizzard] the situation was tenuous; eventually, i recognized some landmarks and made my way back to Paradise to find a parking lot empty of all cars but my pickup and Ranger Karen waiting hopefully at Cougar Rock--she had left me a note on my windshield, but I almost couldn't get my doors open for the plastered snow). If there is no precip and the snow is settled, 30 mph is easily handled. 50 mph is difficult to handle under many conditions. And higher ... the woman of the pair that survived two nights recounted that the strong winds blew snow into the vents of her goggles making them useless from plastering inside and out. Of course, i'm an old codger, and I can go skiing any day; but above treeline--I am conservative.

Mt. Rainier can be such a vicious beast.

I remember in January a few years ago starting from Paradise in sunshine and nothing more than a base layer.  Halfway up the snowfield the clouds began to roll in.  The winds picked up and the temperature must have dropped 20 degrees in a matter of seconds.  My fingers were numb before I could get my gloves on.  We made the decision to high-tail it off of the mountain before conditions worsened.

In high wind and blowing snow without goggles, you're screwed.

Just wanted to highlight this point. Glacier glasses with side shields don't cut it for me on trips where harsh winter weather is possible. Travelling into the wind in riming conditions without goggles can be painful and blinding.

Skin wax has a similar home in my pack.

Well, that's the dilemma, isn't it: if you hold back on any analysis or criticism of an incident out of respect for family and friends, then you may lose the chance to publicize important lessons which could be learned from the incident. If you wait until after a lengthy grieving period has passed (months, a year?) then the incident has faded from public view, and the important lessons will not be widely heard even if presented then. For the first time in my life, I dealt with the death of two close friends in the mountains within the past year, so I'm certainly much more sensitive to the issues regarding grief of family and friends than I was before. But even more so after those two fatal accidents last year, I don't think that family and friends should be shielded from the truth, or that public discussion of an incident should be avoided.

I fully agree with Amar and as I read the posts above I wasn't seeing harsh criticism but some analysis of what many would feel was a lack of foresight, caution and situational awareness. Though this forum is public, it isn't like we are printing our comment in the Seattle Times but sharing our insight to a group of backcountry skiers/boarders to clarify decision points that may have saved the lives of those lost.

We do this kind of analysis in medicine all of the time - it's called morbidity and mortality report. In a confidential meeting (to allow for open discussion), we break down the events that led to a bad outcome (or sometimes an expected death - not necessarily avoidable). This is done to teach ourselves everything possible to avoid pitfalls or mistakes that could have occurred. Brokering a respectful, honest discussion is an art, but it also must be honest and not duck the key questions or acceptance of failure. In the process, we hope to have some humility too, since we all realize that anyone of us could make the same mistake.

Yes, a totally random event could take someone out at no fault of their own and that does happen, but more often then not, it is human error that leads to someone's death in most of these stories. We must learn from our own mistakes and those of others and carry that humility into the mountains.

Dr. Telemark

I'm wondering at what speed winds would you consider aborting a trip, also considering the predicted values are averages?

I started thinking about this and writing, and it just grew too long (and too specifically about me) to post in this thread. So it seems best to start a separate thread:

High winds on Mt Rainier: thoughts and experiences

Ryan (or anyone) do you mind sharing where they were last seen heading up towards Camp Muir?

It looks like Mike Vucich's body was found just a little above Pebble Creek.

blog.thenewstribune.com/adventure/2012/0...nd-at-mount-rainier/

The Tacoma News Tribune is reporting two more bodies and a campsite have been found on Paradise Glacier:  www.thenewstribune.com/2012/09/08/228759...two-bodies-from.html 

Was on Paradise glacier today and the heli came in and out of that location 5 times.