5500 ft for monday night

Whats this??.....5500 ft snow level for monday night.....partly cloudy tuesday.....paradise?? Time to get some fresh slush puppys

Do any of the telemetry-watchers think this will materialize, and/or lead to any significant goodness? I just don't have the skills to extrapolate from the bulletins....<br><br>Drew

I've been stung WAYYYY too many time by weather extrapolations this year, but it sure looks like Wednesday is the day this week.<br><br>www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/index.ph...33333&lon=-121.80875

(Of course, this guess is from the same guy who chased fresh snow all the way up Baker Saturday and ended up skittering off the Roman wall on a sheet of ice. >:()

Oh my!<br><br>

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE<br>NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR<br>300 AM PDT TUE MAY 10 2005<br><br>ORZ011-013-101815-<br>/X.NEW.KPQR.SN.Y.0001.050510T1000Z-050510T1900Z/<br>NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-<br>INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GOVERNMENT CAMP...DETROIT...<br>SANTIAM PASS...MCKENZIE BRIDGE...OAKRIDGE...WILLAMETTE PASS<br>300 AM PDT TUE MAY 10 2005<br><br>...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY ABOVE 5000 FEET...<br><br>THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PORTLAND HAS ISSUED A SNOW<br>ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY.<br><br>FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ABOVE 5000 FEET THROUGH<br>THIS MORNING IN THE NORTH OREGON CASCADES. TIMBERLINE LODGE AND<br>THE 5000 FOOT LEVEL AT SKI BOWL HAVE LIKELY HAD 3 TO 5 INCHES OF<br>NEW SNOW ALREADY THIS MORNING. SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE PASSES WILL BE<br>LESS...POSSIBLY REACHING 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE HIGHER PASSES SUCH<br>AS SANTIAM AND WILLAMETTE PASSES.<br><br>THE SNOW WILL DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW LEVEL RISES TO<br>5500 OR 6000 FEET.<br><br>A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY<br>TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND<br>LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

Timberline Lodge was reporting heavy snowfall and 5" of new snow this morning (although they're closed due to inclement weather). Unfortunately, it's mostly rain in WA, as the colder air remains to the south:<br><br>

WAZ017-018-102230-<br> WEST SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES AND PASSES-<br> WEST SLOPES CENTRAL CASCADES AND PASSES-<br> INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DARRINGTON...MARBLEMOUNT...INDEX...<br> SNOQUALMIE PASS...RANDLE...PACKWOOD...ASHFORD<br> 415 AM PDT TUE MAY 10 2005<br> <br> .TODAY...SHOWERS LIKELY THIS MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A <br> CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL 7000 FEET. AFTERNOON <br> PASS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WIND IN THE PASSES <br> LIGHT. <br> .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.<br> SNOW LEVEL 6000 FEET. WIND IN THE PASSES LIGHT BECOMING EAST<br> AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. <br>

<br><br>So 5500 ft never materialized up here, not even close, the NWAC telemetry shows the sorry (soggy) story:<br>

[fixed]<br>5-10-2005<br>Northwest Weather and Avalanche Center<br>Paradise, Mt Rainier National Park, Washington<br><br>RH occasionally reads high<br><br> MM/DD Hour Temp RH Wind Wind Wind Hour Total 24 Hr Total<br> - PST F % Avg Max Dir Prec. Prec. Snow Snow<br> - - 5550' 5550' 5500' 5500' 5500' 5550' 5550' 5550' 5550'<br>

---

<br> 5 9 900 40 97 0 2 299 .2 .2 -0 53<br> 5 9 1000 45 85 1 5 64 0 .2 -231 53<br> 5 9 1100 47 79 1 4 79 .01 .21 -0 64<br> 5 9 1200 49 79 1 4 84 .04 .25 -0 63<br> 5 9 1300 46 81 1 5 88 .01 .26 -0 55<br> 5 9 1400 44 90 1 4 79 0 .26 -0 53<br> 5 9 1500 41 96 1 3 136 .24 .5 -0 57<br> 5 9 1600 41 95 0 0 327 .08 .58 -0 53<br> 5 9 1700 39 97 0 1 247 .05 .63 0 54<br> 5 9 1800 38 99 1 7 269 .11 .74 0 64<br> 5 9 1900 37 99 1 6 267 .07 .81 -224 64<br> 5 9 2000 36 99 1 2 267 .06 .87 0 64<br> 5 9 2100 36 99 1 7 274 .05 .92 0 63<br> 5 9 2200 36 99 1 5 269 .04 .96 0 62<br> 5 9 2300 36 100 1 4 268 .01 .97 0 64<br> 5 10 0 36 100 1 5 261 .06 1.03 0 55<br> 5 10 100 35 100 1 10 279 .09 1.12 0 64<br> 5 10 200 34 100 1 4 284 .08 1.2 -223 54<br> 5 10 300 34 100 1 4 273 .07 1.27 0 55<br> 5 10 400 34 100 1 4 276 .02 1.29 0 53<br> 5 10 500 34 100 0 3 268 .01 1.3 0 52<br> 5 10 600 35 99 1 3 275 .01 1.31 0 62<br> 5 10 700 36 98 1 3 268 0 1.31 0 61<br> 5 10 800 36 96 0 1 202 .01 1.32 0 54<br>[/fixed]

<br><br>So there's definitely been 10-15" of new snow above 7000 ft, with very light westerly winds. Potentially, there could be deep powder on the Muir Snowfield or especially the more-sheltered Paradise Glacier.<br><br>

What amazes me about the recent weather is the 4" and counting of water that has fallen on Mission Ridge in the last 32 or so hours. Could have been a bunch of snow up there if the forecast fl's had materialized. Alas, all rain. I love when situations like this produce big orographic enhancement on the east slopes.

So does that mean there is 40 inches of fresh powder on Mt Stuart right now!?

What amazes me about the recent weather is the 4" and counting of water that has fallen on Mission Ridge in the last 32 or so hours.

<br><br>Thanks for the astute observation. A quick check of the two closest SNOTEL sites (Upper Wheeler, Trough) shows about 4" of precip in 24 hours on May 9 and nearly 5" between the afternoon of May 8 and today evening. The most surprising thing about this storm is that only 19" of total precip has fallen at these two sites since the water year began on October 1, and nearly 25% of that came in a single day!<br><br>However, other nearby SNOTEL sites (Grouse Camp, Blewett Pass) just west got only about 2" of precip, and even farther west at Sasse Ridge only about 1" fell. The Stuart Range is closest to Blewett and Sasse, so it appears likely that a maximum of 10-20" of snow fell above 7000 ft in that area. Sorry, Phil.<br><br>

Tim_place......you got the wrong guy. I was only brining up the fact that there was a chance of finding new snow.....loaded w/water or not somewhere in this " cascade" range of (ours?)washington/oregon. I've been nowhere near the roman wall this season.....let alone skimmed down it. The sun is gonna shine in the pm.....so youz got to get up for the am. I hope next season will all make us happy

Spicoli, tim_place was saying he was the guy chattering down the Roman Wall

Sorry Tim ......my bad. So did anybody find snow??