El Nino possible this winter!

i do fervently hope they are wrong, or else we'll all spend winter in a funk and very little skiing...<br><br>www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_..._advisory/index.html

I don't even want to know

further bad news from noaa<br>www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/s2326.htm

>60% chance of a warmer and drier than normal winter :(

According to NOAA I guess the best place to ski this winter is somewhere in Texas or Louisiana.<br>JDB

This contravenes what the Oregon Climatologists forecasted . It'll be interesting to see if the Oregon Climatologists revise their forecast.<br><br>"If you can't drink it, it's powder" -Andrew McLean<br>

Didn't we just have El Nino a couple years back? Oh well, if we have it it'll make for a good excuse to work mad hours, save some money and get myself some real ski mountaineering equipment so that I can be a real partner and not have to be babysat. ;D ;D

Ha! I emailed George Taylor, the official Oregon Climatologist who forecasted a wetter/colder winter, to ask if he'd revise his forecast in view of NOAA's. He promptly responded, "I'll stick with mine."<br><br><br>So which forecast should we believe? I generally feel federal agencies have a better idea of what they're doing then state agencies (especially from gaperish states like Oreghaonn), however being the optimist I am I'm choosing to believe Taylor and the other Oregon Climate Services forecasts. Let's not forget this excerpt:<br>

The most compelling information we've noted is, in years where we have experienced an historically wet August (as we have this year), it was followed (90% of the time, or 18 out of 20 historically wet Augusts) by above normal precipitation for the remainder of the winter.

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I'm with Jeffey, go with the optimism.

If we do get above normal precipitation. Think COLD, not warm. Above normal precip don't do much good with freezing levels above our ski area elevations. &gt;