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09/22/19, 11:32 AM

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Author Topic: So..this does not look good....  (Read 647 times)
dberdinka
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So..this does not look good....
« on: 09/06/19, 10:22 AM »

"The latest plot of the difference of the current sea surface temperature from normal (the SST anomaly) available from NOAA shows that some of the most unusually warm water across the planet is now offshore of the West Coast.   Some of the water is 2.5-4 C degrees warmer than normal (4.5-7.2F warmer than normal). "



I know nothing at all about ocean dynamics but hard to believe that much heat energy is just going to dissipate in the next couple months.    Maybe not the year to be upgrading gear and buying the whole family passes?
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dberdinka
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Re: So..this does not look good....
« Reply #1 on: 09/06/19, 10:51 AM »

Temperature Prediction for Jan-Mar.    50% chance this winter will be in the warmest 1/3 of winters using a baseline of 1981-2010.   33% chance it will be in middle 1/3 and 17% chance in coldest 1/3.     


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kamtron
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Re: So..this does not look good....
« Reply #2 on: 09/06/19, 12:00 PM »

It ain't El Niño, it's the blob!!!
A friend of mine who's a fish scientist at NOAA had said the blob's been back for a while now. People think it was the reason for our real shit season a few years ago.

I'm not going to get too worked up about it. That's why we tour, right? You can always find snow somewhere.

Where'd you get your outlook for January-March? Is that an experimental product from the CPC? https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
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kamtron
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Re: So..this does not look good....
« Reply #3 on: 09/10/19, 01:19 PM »

Actually my NOAA friend informs me that it's "not the blob" this time. The blob was warm water near the surface in the northern Pacific, but this time the warm water extends deeper into the column.
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toddball
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Re: So..this does not look good....
« Reply #4 on: 09/10/19, 04:29 PM »

How deep into the water column?  Hard to measure very deep via remote sensing means.  Any reading material for us?
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kamtron
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Re: So..this does not look good....
« Reply #5 on: 09/11/19, 09:59 AM »

I had to do some digging, but here's something:
https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/feature-story/new-marine-heatwave-emerges-west-coast-resembles-blob

They don't really talk about deep water heat, however. It's all sea surface temps (SST).
I think if you dig around enough on NOAA sites you can find the depth profiles.
Maybe somewhere here: https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/
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kamtron
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Re: So..this does not look good....
« Reply #6 on: 09/17/19, 12:09 PM »

https://www.integratedecosystemassessment.noaa.gov/regions/california-current/cc-projects-blobtracker

Still haven't found data about the deep heat, could be fake news.
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