12-21-17 Paradise telemetry

On Friday. Dec. 21st. 'Total Snow' on Paradise telemetry dropped from 88" to 59" in one hour on a cold day.  The following morning the park issued a press release that the snowplay area opening would be delayed due to "insufficient snow".  Traditionally, the minimum snowpack for bulldozing the tube runs is 60".  Last year the snowplay opened after Christmas vacation despite 60+" before the holiday period.  This morning there is a new header above the telemetry data:  "Total snowdepth artificially lowered 30 inches 2pm 12-21"

www.nwac.us/weatherdata/paradise/now/

I've heard of climate data disappearing lately, but this seems a strange new type of 'alternative facts'

NWAC saying it wasn't them.. No accountability at the Park Service..

Snotel data for paradise has been off this season too.

On Friday. Dec. 21st. 'Total Snow' on Paradise telemetry dropped from 88" to 59" in one hour on a cold day.  The following morning the park issued a press release that the snowplay area opening would be delayed due to "insufficient snow".  Traditionally, the minimum snowpack for bulldozing the tube runs is 60".  Last year the snowplay opened after Christmas vacation despite 60+" before the holiday period.  This morning there is a new header above the telemetry data:  "Total snowdepth artificially lowered 30 inches 2pm 12-21"

www.nwac.us/weatherdata/paradise/now/

I've heard of climate data disappearing lately, but this seems a strange new type of 'alternative facts'

The telemetyry headers says total snow was artificially reduced by 30 inches on the 21st. My initial reaction is that this was done a) by accident or b) on purpose because someone accidentally reduced the number of columns in total snow to 2, meaning 99 would be max. Anyway, one can just add 30. As far as snowplay, looking at the photos, it appears that encroaching subalpine firs are growing tall enough to inhibit grooming of the area. IMHO, the park needs to remove some of this young trees before they lose lots of the meadows Paradise is famous for.

For the last two days I had been wondering the same thing and was going to post on twitter my thoughts. I'm a business owner in Ashford and wether it's skiers or snowplay people, we lose when the Park manipulates facts to suit its needs.

Here is a screen shot I took because I thought so weird...

Don't worry soon Gazillionairs will be the only one allowed in the previously protected "National Parks".   

In fact... they will all want to buy a previously National Park of their own. They are unlikely to want to get their $1000 shoes wet with snow play, so keeping the meadow open is probably a waste of time. 

Rather than work to keep a meadow open, it would be a better investment of government money to install money machines all over the previous wilderness, so that rich people can freebase money where ever the mood strikes them.  They have rights, after all!

Don't worry we will all be very happy in the camps, they will educate us all about "GOD'S WILL". 

This is crazy if true. Is there any explanation for the drop on telemetry that doesn't involve the park not wanting to groom the snow play area? Equipment malfunction? Some tourists taking selfies with the telemetry station in the background? Russian operatives hacking NWAC's system to reduce the total snow amount?

In all seriousness, this is an automated sensor, right? So someone would have needed to shovel about 2.5 ft of snow away from the weather station. Seems that would still be visible now before the next big storm in a day or two, sounds like an investigation for one of the locals. I suspect the news media would be interested in convincing photographic evidence.

Has anyone inquired to NWAC?

IMHO, the park needs to remove some of this young trees before they lose lots of the meadows Paradise is famous for.

Unlikely to happen, I suspect.

By the time our grandchildren are grown I'm guessing the meadows near Paradise will be gone.

By the time our grandchildren are grown I'm guessing the meadows near Paradise will be gone.

So, perhaps, will the snow.

...As far as snowplay, looking at the photos, it appears that encroaching subalpine firs are growing tall enough to inhibit grooming of the area.  IMHO, the park needs to remove some of this young trees before they lose lots of the meadows Paradise is famous for.

Park management was aware of forest encroachment into meadows half a century ago.  Back in the 60's & into the 70's, there was an annual end-of season event at Paradise with the goal of pulling ten thousand conifer seedlings.  It was kind of like a work party / employee picnic with wives & kids & delegations from outlying Districts.  The de-veg was packed into burlap sacks and loaded into pickups and Cushman scooters at the nearest paved trail.  It ended up at the Kautz utility area, (ie dump/heliport; check it out out on Google Earth).

It seems to me that even with today's increased conifers, there is still room for a scaled-down kids-only sliding area with several short runs side-by side.  I'd bet it could be built by hand by volunteers and without the tree damage & hydraulic leaks caused by the Pisten-Bully.   

www.nps.gov/mora/learn/news/newsreleases.htm

Or ... just let the kids go slide!

oxymoron;
Government Data

I talked to some folks at NWAC and they don't have an explanation for why the drop in snow depth occurred.  It could be due to an equipment issue or some other cause.

It seems to me that any nefarious acts would be plainly visible at the weather station as someone would have had to walk (or ski!) to the station and shovel a few feet of snow away from the sensor.  This should be easily visible until the next significant snow fall, due to arrive Christmas Day.  This leaves exactly one day -- tomorrow, Dec 24 -- to investigate.

Any skiers headed to Paradise tomorrow -- or any locals with a vested interest in exposing the corrupt underbelly of the NPS -- take a trip out to the telemetry station and take lots of photos!! The truth needs to be told.

(for the record, I do not have any affiliation with the NPS or NWAC).

Hmm, this morning (Sunday) the entire 'Total Snow' column is blank on Paradise telemetry, with a new heading:  "Total snowdepth out 2 pm Dec 21"

Too bad, I find it useful to compare new snow to total snow to judge the amount of settlement.

I hope this is not part of Zinke's anti-science push   

newrepublic.com/minutes/146390/national-...imate-change-website

NASA also cites a January 2009 study by researchers at the University of Illinois. They surveyed 3,146 earth scientists, winnowing the field to climate change researchers who actively published their results, the survey found that 75 of 77 of them, or 97.4 percent, said human activity is a significant driver of climate change. That latter figure also has come under criticism because of its small sample size.

Tatoosh Freezing-Fog Crust Atop Powder and Paradise NWAC Telemetry Site Visit, 26Dec2017

Well, I managed to go take a look at the NWAC site the day after Christmas, and started writing a detailed post here with several photos of the site. But it grew long enough that I decided to post it as a separate TR instead:

Dec 26, 2017, Tatoosh & Paradise NWAC Site Visit

[size=small]Panorama of the Paradise NWAC telemetry site. (click for double-size version)[/size]

Thanks for your efforts on this, Amar!  I would not have started this thread without the now-gone "artificially lowered 30" telemetry header coinciding with the snowplay delay press release.

NPS rank & file employees continue to do a great job for the most part, but also continue to rate their own top-heavy management among the worst in the federal government:
bestplacestowork.org/BPTW/rankings/detail/IN10#tab_category_tbl
www.eenews.net/stories/1060038401

I think the lack of NPS transparency and accountability will likely not improve.  The real reason for the Rump administration's large number of federal management vacancies, including NPS Director, is to allow their 'transition' officials from the Heritage Foundation to act as unconfirmed, unseen political commissars enforcing ideological conformity.

Edit to add '24-Hour Snow' on telemetry also not working 12-28, judging by cams and 'Total Precipitation'

Thanks for your efforts on this, Amar!  I would not have started this thread without the now-gone "artificially lowered 30" telemetry header coinciding with the snowplay delay press release.

...

Edit to add '24-Hour Snow' on telemetry also not working 12-28, judging by cams and 'Total Precipitation'

Yeah, that "artificially lowered" wording was worrisome, and really made it seem as if NWAC thought that someone had dug away 30" of snow. It's definitely an unusual failure mode for that snowdepth sensor to start showing a new (apparently realistic) lower value, instead of just totally random values or zeros that would have been obviously spurious.

As for the 24-hour snowdepth, I think it's working correctly, but it remains partially buried to a depth of 12" in older recent snow since it was last cleared off on December 20. So just subtract 12" to get the approximate new snowfall until someone finally clears it off. As of 9am on December 28, it's currently showing 2" of new snowfall and 0.37" of new precip since yesterday, which seems to be reasonable given temps hovering just below freezing and also roughly matches the new snowfall visible on the webcams. New snowfall might actually be about 3", due to ongoing settlement of the old 12" on the 24-hour snowdepth board.

Northwest Avalanche Center
Paradise, Mt Rainier National Park, Washington

Total snowdepth out 2 pm Dec 21

MM/DD  Hour  Temp    RH  Wind  Wind  Wind  Hour Total 24 Hr Total Solar
         PST     F     %   Avg   Max   Dir Prec. Prec.  Snow  Snow  W/m2
             5400' 5400' 5380' 5380' 5380' 5400' 5400' 5400' 5400' 5380'

---

12 27  1000    27    96    10    14   265     0     0    12          41
12 27  1100    29    96    12    18   261   .01   .01    12          81
12 27  1200    30    97    13    19   262   .01   .02    13          65
12 27  1300    30    98    13    18   263   .03   .05    13          35
12 27  1400    30    97    14    20   264   .06   .11    13          39
12 27  1500    31    99    15    19   268   .02   .13    13          25
12 27  1600    30    98    14    21   264   .02   .15    13          16
12 27  1700    31    98    14    19   262   .02   .17    13           0
12 27  1800    31    99    12    20   263   .01   .18    13           0
12 27  1900    31    99    12    22   261     0   .18    13           0
12 27  2000    31    99    12    18   265   .01   .19    13           0
12 27  2100    31    99    17    25   264     0   .19    13           0
12 27  2200    31    99    16    23   266     0   .19    13           0
12 27  2300    31    99    15    21   263   .01    .2    13           0
12 28     0    31    99    14    24   260   .03   .23    13           0
12 28   100    30    98    14    19   264   .01   .24    13           0
12 28   200    30    98    14    23   263   .03   .27    13           0
12 28   300    30    98    12    20   262   .01   .28    13           0
12 28   400    29    98    13    21   259   .01   .29    13           0
12 28   500    29    98    16    24   260     0   .29    13           0
12 28   600    30    98    15    23   261     0   .29    13           0
12 28   700    30    98    14    20   260     0   .29    13           0
12 28   800    30    98    12    18   260   .04   .33    14           0
12 28   900    30    98    12    18   263   .04   .37    14          18


Given that forecasts and models indicate 3-5 ft of new snowfall at Paradise over the next 48 hours, that 24-hour snowdepth sensor will be completely buried out of sight by Saturday morning if those predictions come true.

Could it be that the sensor measurement drifted up, and someone's at NWAC just added a "subtract 30" to the measurement processing?

Could it be that the sensor measurement drifted up, and someone's at NWAC just added a "subtract 30" to the measurement processing?

No real evidence of that, the readings were fine until the sudden drop on Dec 21, and overall, they are fluctuating wildly since then, not just offset by any fixed amount. See the 7 days of Paradise NWAC data in my TR linked above, which includes all the missing data since NWAC blanked the total snowdepth column on Dec 23.

Or just look at the raw snow sensor data via the NWAC data portal, which shows the current wild fluctuations:
www.nwac.us/data-portal/location/mt-rain...snow_depth&year=2017

Well, it's back online: the Paradise total snow column was un-blanked in the NWAC telemetry after 6pm on December 28, with the note updated to read, "Total snow gage repaired 4 pm Dec 28"!

Northwest Avalanche Center
Paradise, Mt Rainier National Park, Washington

Total snow gage repaired 4 pm Dec 28

MM/DD  Hour  Temp    RH  Wind  Wind  Wind  Hour Total 24 Hr Total Solar
         PST     F     %   Avg   Max   Dir Prec. Prec.  Snow  Snow  W/m2
             5400' 5400' 5380' 5380' 5380' 5400' 5400' 5400' 5400' 5380'

---

12 27  1900    31    99    12    22   261     0     0    13    56     0
12 27  2000    31    99    12    18   265   .01   .01    13    57     0
12 27  2100    31    99    17    25   264     0   .01    13    58     0
12 27  2200    31    99    16    23   266     0   .01    13    58     0
12 27  2300    31    99    15    21   263   .01   .02    13    61     0
12 28     0    31    99    14    24   260   .03   .05    13    58     0
12 28   100    30    98    14    19   264   .01   .06    13    57     0
12 28   200    30    98    14    23   263   .03   .09    13    55     0
12 28   300    30    98    12    20   262   .01    .1    13    50     0
12 28   400    29    98    13    21   259   .01   .11    13    34     0
12 28   500    29    98    16    24   260     0   .11    13   299     0
12 28   600    30    98    15    23   261     0   .11    13    58     0
12 28   700    30    98    14    20   260     0   .11    13    58     0
12 28   800    30    98    12    18   260   .04   .15    14   299     0
12 28   900    30    98    12    18   263   .04   .19    14    55    18
12 28  1000    30    98    15    21   266   .04   .23    15    50    45
12 28  1100    30    97    14    20   273   .05   .28    14   299    71
12 28  1200    31    96    13    18   273   .05   .33    16    56    80
12 28  1300    31    97    10    16   274   .06   .39    17   299    59
12 28  1400    31    97    12    18   274   .09   .48    18    61    38
12 28  1500    30    98    15    23   278   .07   .55    18   299    20
12 28  1600    30    98    14    20   270   .08   .63    20    87     8
12 28  1700    30    98    13    21   270   .09   .72    21    88     0
12 28  1800    31    99    11    18   265   .09   .81    21    89     0


Obviously, the 24-hour snowdepth board still wasn't cleared off when the total snowdepth was fixed, not sure why that wasn't done! Unless it was somehow remotely repaired, and did not require an actual onsite visit. Will have to find out the real story from the NWAC folks sometime.

So what happened to the total snow measurement is that the pole that the electronic sensor is mounted on can slip, since it is mounted in a less than ideal manner (hose clamps) on a non standard tower for us.

Long story short the slip causes the sensor readings to be too low. No government conspiracy just gravity.

For this simple fix we were able to get a park employee to go out with pair of vice grips and realign the pole.

Hopefully a regular clearing of the 24 hour board will resume soon.

Maybe we can improve the total snow sensor mount before too long as well.

Thanks, Garth
NW Avalanche Center

So what happened to the total snow measurement is that the pole that the electronic sensor is mounted on can slip, since it is mounted in a less than ideal manner (hose clamps) on a non standard tower for us.

Long story short the slip causes the sensor readings to be too low. No government conspiracy just gravity.

For this simple fix we were able to get a park employee to go out with pair of vice grips and realign the pole.

Hopefully a regular clearing of the 24 hour board will resume soon.

Maybe we can improve the total snow sensor mount before too long as well.

Thanks, Garth
NW Avalanche Center

Thanks for the info on what really happened, Garth. Never thought that might be the culprit, and everything about the sensor arm looked ok from a distance when I visited the site 3 days ago. But it's nice to see a stable snowdepth reading once again.

Amar - I thought I would add a couple comments. The slip occurs when snow builds up on the top of the sonic sensor and causes the pole to rotate a bit, hence the distance the sensor measures to the snow surface becomes further, hence the snow by the usual arithmetic is shallower.

The readings become uneven because the sensor is no longer pointed vertically at the snow surface but at an angle.

One wouldn't see any problems when skiing by unless you knew exactly what to look for.

The original comment about artificial lowering wasn't the best, it was made before the problem was understood.

Again maybe the mount can be improved in the future to prevent the slip, it has happened before.