Powder Alert -- 11/27/17

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Powder Alert Nov 27, 2017

Hello skiers,

Great news: Expect cooler weather, with snow returning this week.

My, oh my, the mild air and high snowlevels of the last week was pain full. Ouch...and we had such a good start the first couple of days of the season for many ski areas. Hey, it's still only November. In the last week, every ski area lost at least some snow, but the rain on snow didn't wipe us out entirely. Mt Baker's deeper base held up well, as did some other ski areas. Check area websites for operations and hours. A little new snow fell last night down to about 3000 ft, for most ski areas. Respectable new snow is on the way this week, with more sustained lower snow levels, as a cooler westerly flow is aimed at us.

Three storms are in line to help us out this week and deepen the snowpack. Snow levels will be 2500-4000 ft, through Thursday and lowering toward the weekend. The first new snowstorm looks best and will start early Tuesday (SL 3500, 4-10" new). Then next in line will be Thursday (SL 2000-3500ft, 2-5" new). Then later Friday and Saturday (SL 1500-2500, 1-5" new).

I am somewhat confident in the snowlevels staying below 3500 - 4,000 ft and gradually lowering, later in the week. Expect the rain/snow mix only on the lower slopes, and mainly early Tuesday (lowering later in the day). The expected snowfall amounts have more uncertainty, but we won't get skunked with no new snow for the week. I'd say, by Saturday, the five day snowfall total would be 1-2 ft new. Snowfall totals won't go much lower and it could go higher with stalling or a convergence zone forming.

Whistler will have mostly snow from mid mountain to the alpine, with rain in the Village. But late week cooling will mean snow in the Village ( and a little on the road from Squamish) by the weekend. Several storms will visit Whistler Tuesday - Saturday worth 1-2 feet of new by Saturday - and that is quality new snow! Remember Whistler is farther north and slightly higher in elevation, so snow levels tend to be lower than Washington and Oregon by about 1000ft. However, snow level and snow fall amounts can vary widely, depending on; elevation, storm orientation and other local weather factors like cold inflow of continental air from the east.

Larry Schick, meteorologist
The Grand Poobah of Powder

Yo Larry Good Work!

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Both Larry Schick & Cliff Mass missed yesterday's easterly flow that resulted in 10-12" of snow atop I-90.

My rule of thumb has been that when NOAA's point forecast calls for an east wind, mixed rain/snow but "little to no" accumulation, it'll dump snow. Sometimes it results in freezing rain, but usually only in the case of a warm front colliding with a cold east wind, which was not the case yesterday.

I do wonder why it's so hard for our local forecasters to predict these events. Is it a modeling issue? Not enough data points in the right places? A probability nightmare w/ modern ensemble methodologies?

I looked at the radar yesterday morning before I went out and could see it was dumping at Baker and Snoqualmie. The two forecasters you mentioned are usually pretty accurate, hey no body's perfect.

Well today's "mixed rain/snow" has been heavy white stuff falling to the tune of 4-6", even on the lowest of slopes.

I don't expect NOAA's point forecasts to get this right, NWAC was on the money this time, but both Larry & Cliff were remarkably mum.