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May 25, 2015, Muir

5/25/15
WA Cascades West Slopes South (Mt Rainier)
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Posted by androolus on 5/26/15 12:32am
This is more a rant about weather forecasting lameness than a trip report. It was quite sunny at Muir on Monday. We had a delightful tour though it started in the fog and ended in the fog. The fog creeped up to 7500 by 3pm when we were descending, making the nisqually chutes a little more dicey. But clearly there was overnight freezing and the corn was pretty good from muir to the bottom of the chutes. I was expecting it to be too soft for good skiing but I was pleasantly surprised.

I saw pictures from rainier, adams and st helens showing nice clear skies (above a certain elevation)...so I'm wishing that the NOAA forecasts could have indicated clearing above a certain elevation...and that I hadn't cancelled my plans for an adams fest. Did anyone see a forecast showing clearing above?
for sure! would be great if they could try to nail down cloud deck elevation!?  I've never been able to find such info.  please post if someone knows of any.
I had a similar experience last week, forecast was for cloud-rain, but Paradise was well above that.


search for "cloud water"
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/rt/gfsinit.d3.html
then, pick the elevation you're looking for.

or, just do the "column integrated" option and you'll see the full picture.

note: this forecasting tool is a crapshoot too. i look at it and then start grabbing the grains of salt...

I started a new thread that describes what I look for to predict cloud top elevation:

http://www.turns-all-year.com/skiing_snowboarding/trip_reports/index.php?topic=34309.0

I have been using mountain-forecast.com. It shows forecasts for different elevations which I find helpful for a quick go to for wind and was actually useful for cloud level too a couple weekends ago. It showed sun for Rainier at 8k and above when I went up to the prow a few weekends ago. Same for this weekend, but I didn't get a chance to get out this weekend to see if it was true. It has been pretty accurate when I've used it! http://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Mount-Rainier

great tips! thx people.


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may-25-2015-muir
androolus
2015-05-26 07:32:00