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Author Topic: It slid last week so it's good…right?  (Read 24946 times)
freeski
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Re: It slid last week so it's good…right?
« Reply #25 on: 03/19/14, 02:27 PM »

I'm sorry about making assumptions about what you were referring to.  What you wrote made it sound like the "miss information" was coming from professional observations made in the Washington Pass area.  What information were you referring to?
if you  want to have a valid discussion on all relevant topics of bc safety and how some of the old time,local BC skiers communicate, i would welcome that. However, last time we tried that, it did not go well. My only option has been to seek regulatory intervention and control, which is the right of all citizens concerning public land use. 
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"I'm not making love to anyones wishes, only for that light I see." Cat Stevens
freeski
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Re: It slid last week so it's good…right?
« Reply #26 on: 03/19/14, 02:35 PM »

It is just that your track record is so often antagonistic. I am going to agree with you that organizations have made mistakes and even possibly overstepped boundaries intententionally. Members of the public have in the past and will continue in the future to make poor decisions.

If your true goal is education you might consider that at least one person stops hearing your message when it takes the tone of zealous evangelism.
all i can say to this is that i'm down in the trenches.i believe that i have been clear. I'm sick of a system that is getting clients and guides killed in the bc. Tay is full of old timers who know how to survive in the bc, so it can be done. Most of us have had close calls and are lucky to be here, and we know when we are pushing risk. Some of us,not me, pull way back and survival odds increase.   
« Last Edit: 03/19/14, 02:56 PM by freeskiguy » Logged

"I'm not making love to anyones wishes, only for that light I see." Cat Stevens
Jeff_Ward
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Re: It slid last week so it's good…right?
« Reply #27 on: 03/19/14, 04:45 PM »

if you  want to have a valid discussion on all relevant topics of bc safety and how some of the old time,local BC skiers communicate, i would welcome that. However, last time we tried that, it did not go well. My only option has been to seek regulatory intervention and control, which is the right of all citizens concerning public land use. 
If you cannot answer my question I'm going to have to assume that you were referring to the avalanche forecast.  If you have valid critiques of the forecast, or can offer more information about avalanche and snowpack observations that would be great.  The more eyes in the field the better.  I suggest you post your observations here. http://www.wwu.edu/huxley/spatial/maps/nwac/.  If you would like to improve the accuracy of your observations and your ability to communicate these observations I'd suggest taking an AIARE Level 2 avalanche course.  With your interest in the ski guiding profession this might be a good place to start to learn more about the professionalism required for entry level guides. 
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mattfirth
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Re: It slid last week so it's good…right?
« Reply #28 on: 03/19/14, 07:56 PM »

Sometimes FSG and I agree, sometimes we don't.

No such thing as perfect accuracy when it comes to prediction and snows desire to slide down the hill. I appreciate NWAC and Jeff Wards efforts. Much better that anything we've had in the past.

Matt
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peteyboy
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Re: It slid last week so it's good…right?
« Reply #29 on: 03/20/14, 07:31 PM »

Hopefully productive conversations, though that's officially one jacked thread.
Seriously, thanks for the insight from those who responded to the topic.
Looking forward to everyone's input about that now crazy deep crust when spring melting percolates down to it on our favorite late season routes.
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Gregg_C
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Re: It slid last week so it's good…right?
« Reply #30 on: 03/20/14, 09:28 PM »

Hopefully productive conversations, though that's officially one jacked thread.

What were you expecting my friend? A learned discussion focused on the topic?  HaHa.

Avy forum+east side locals=  thread jack and some seriously entertaining exchanges.

I enjoyed it all.  Jeff Ward, fabulous work this winter.  My hat is tipped to you and others at the new observer program at NWAC.
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freeski
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Re: It slid last week so it's good…right?
« Reply #31 on: 03/22/14, 09:48 AM »

What were you expecting my friend? A learned discussion focused on the topic?  HaHa.

Avy forum+east side locals=  thread jack and some seriously entertaining exchanges.

I enjoyed it all.  Jeff Ward, fabulous work this winter.  My hat is tipped to you and others at the new observer program at NWAC.
exactly. And to add. Jeff, thanks for your suggestion about the avy class. A old time guide friend once suggested that i take an avy three course. I remember him asking my advice on where to ski because he had not been out yet. I think he trusts my obsevations because i told about a wl i had seen and later the pwl that resulted in a slide that his clients dug him out of using ski tips because he had the only shovel. Any way, on the tour i advised him on, I informed him about those snow flake thing types that are very bad to have,especially near the ground. He had a problem free tour. Meanwhile, my friends on a different tour triggered a climax avy after skiing and skining back up the slope. They, however did not try to hide that mistake and we all learned from it, both in a practicle sense and an ethical sense. 
« Last Edit: 03/22/14, 10:02 AM by freeskiguy » Logged

"I'm not making love to anyones wishes, only for that light I see." Cat Stevens
freeski
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Re: It slid last week so it's good…right?
« Reply #32 on: 03/22/14, 10:19 AM »

One observation i had this year was seeing large guided groups skiing on the slopes below delancy ridge on 2-15 and 2-16 during all that loading. Those large D3s came down to the hwy with a little more loading what, less than 48 hours later? There is a reason you don't see the locals on those slopes during major loading events. Can we expect not to see the guides out under simular conditions in the future? Or maybe you don't consider this  to be a close call because your observations told you  exactly how much loading was reguired to bring this mass down?
« Last Edit: 03/22/14, 10:37 AM by freeskiguy » Logged

"I'm not making love to anyones wishes, only for that light I see." Cat Stevens
freeski
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Re: It slid last week so it's good…right?
« Reply #33 on: 03/23/14, 09:40 PM »

If you cannot answer my question I'm going to have to assume that you were referring to the avalanche forecast.   
besides the nwac report there are three commercial outlets containing  commercial bc reporting available in the methow valley. Don't assume what you don't know as fact.
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"I'm not making love to anyones wishes, only for that light I see." Cat Stevens
Jeff_Ward
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Re: It slid last week so it's good…right?
« Reply #34 on: 03/24/14, 11:12 AM »

exactly. And to add. Jeff, thanks for your suggestion about the avy class. A old time guide friend once suggested that i take an avy three course. I remember him asking my advice on where to ski because he had not been out yet. I think he trusts my obsevations because i told about a wl i had seen and later the pwl that resulted in a slide that his clients dug him out of using ski tips because he had the only shovel. Any way, on the tour i advised him on, I informed him about those snow flake thing types that are very bad to have,especially near the ground. He had a problem free tour. Meanwhile, my friends on a different tour triggered a climax avy after skiing and skining back up the slope. They, however did not try to hide that mistake and we all learned from it, both in a practicle sense and an ethical sense. 

At times it can be difficult to understand what you are trying to say.  In this particular post are you implying that guides are hiding avalanche incidents from the public?  If so, I'd love for you to just come out at say it. NCMG reports all avalanches, natural or skier triggered, to NWAC every day we are out.  This is not something that is required from the Forest Service.  This is something we do as a public service so NWAC can provide a quality avalanche forecast for the area.   

I am glad to hear that I wasn't the first person to encourage you to take an avalanche course.  I thought it might be taken the wrong way coming from me.  It doesn't appear that you have a good understanding of the effort and professionalism that is needed to accomplish a standard day of guiding.  I think the more effort you put into this part of your education the more effective your comments/critiques of the guiding profession will be.  If you truly want to make a change in what is going on you will probably need to put in a little more effort in this category. 

One observation i had this year was seeing large guided groups skiing on the slopes below delancy ridge on 2-15 and 2-16 during all that loading. Those large D3s came down to the hwy with a little more loading what, less than 48 hours later? There is a reason you don't see the locals on those slopes during major loading events. Can we expect not to see the guides out under simular conditions in the future? Or maybe you don't consider this  to be a close call because your observations told you  exactly how much loading was reguired to bring this mass down?

Let me fill out some of the missing information here:

"A little more loading" is quite an understatement.  Those avalanches came down in the early morning of the 19th after a ton of new snow, falling at a very high rate.  Our groups on Delancy on the 15th and 16th had snowfall rates averaging S1 (1 cm per hour) during their time out there and the avalanches that eventually came down (approximately 72 hours later) did not come down the terrain they were using. 

If you pick your terrain wisely, Delancy can be a reasonable place to ski during a storm cycle.  Quite a few locals use Delancy as a storm skiing zone.  I agree that there are times when it might be inappropriate but I disagree with you when you imply that having skiers there on the 15th and 16th was inappropriate. 

As far as group size goes, we had two groups out on the 15th.  Each group had 4 guests with 1 guide.  On the 16th we also had two groups out.  Each group had 3 guests with 1 guide.  This information is an attempt to help define what you meant by large. 

besides the nwac report there are three commercial outlets containing  commercial bc reporting available in the methow valley. Don't assume what you don't know as fact.

Could you be a little more specific?  I'm not sure what you mean by "three commercial outlets containing commercial bc reporting".   

I could ask you again what misinformation you were referring to but I doubt we would get a straight answer.  It doesn't really matter.  What concerns me is that you implied that these large avalanches were running on the deep persistent layer.  From what we observed, that wasn't the case.  If you have more information regarding this it would be very helpful.  I doubt many people are making decisions based on your comments but I'd hate to see someone think that those slopes are good to go because the deep persistent layer has been wiped out (trying to bring the thread back to the original subject - sorry once again about the major thread jack). 

Jeff

 

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freeski
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Re: It slid last week so it's good…right?
« Reply #35 on: 03/24/14, 12:54 PM »

Website,facebook,radio. Some of those avys took out areas down to steep,slab rock in the usual areas. So you are saying there was a deep pesistant slab threat when your groups were skiing delaney? Hard to avoid avy terrain there. Those avys took out skin track in the bottom run out zone. Could not see higher. tracks have taken out there with far less loading then we had this year. What was the total new snow and wind load on the ridge on the 16th? Just to point out, if your guides had heeded my warnings concerning that bad 2012 pwl instability in the powder cache, a client would not have triggered and been caught in a potentionaly deadly avy. Where can i view that report? Also if your company had been following authorized terrian boundries, that incident could not have occured. You guys were lucky. How many other incidents occured during that extremely reactive pwl  in 2012  when you posted that ''tiptoeing'' appeared to be your midigation stratigy and the pwl was getting harder to trigger? Well, it turns out if you hit the right trigger point with the right load, it is easy to trigger a pwl. How many other assumptions does your expert halo allow you to make? Like when you posted on foac concerning the same pwl, that ''steeper,more committing lines are starting to be skied, not by us, with no results.'' Well that was us and you posted that 9 days after that client involved avy incident, who's details  I disclosed on tay and for which you claimed harassment. And now look, you say  that i'm implying that nwac is intentionally misleading the public.  That's crazy. I think it is time we meet and go skiing. By the way i followed the tay advice last year concerning the snowmo bikes. When i spoke to that snowbike local who posted, we reached an uderstanding in about 40 minutes of good hearted talk. What is taking so long with this issue of ethical practice. Is there some sort of percieved elitism, thanks greg, human factor getting in the way? If so, let me assure you, I view you as a peer group member same as everyone else here.
« Last Edit: 03/24/14, 02:36 PM by freeskiguy » Logged

"I'm not making love to anyones wishes, only for that light I see." Cat Stevens
Jeff_Ward
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Re: It slid last week so it's good…right?
« Reply #36 on: 03/24/14, 03:30 PM »

This back and forth reminds me of a quote from Mark Twain - "Never argue with a fool, onlookers may not be able to tell the difference".  I should have heeded Twain's advice before responding to your post, but I think it has been worth it. 
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freeski
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Re: It slid last week so it's good…right?
« Reply #37 on: 03/24/14, 07:30 PM »

This back and forth reminds me of a quote from Mark Twain - "Never argue with a fool, onlookers may not be able to tell the difference".  I should have heeded Twain's advice before responding to your post, but I think it has been worth it. 
really. No, it was worth a try to arrange a meeting. If you change your mind, let me know. Twain wrote, ''i now concluded to boil a guide. It might improve him,  it could not impair his usefulness.'' from Conquest of the Riffelberg. Its a funny read. Safe journey,always. 
« Last Edit: 03/24/14, 09:39 PM by freeskiguy » Logged

"I'm not making love to anyones wishes, only for that light I see." Cat Stevens
freeski
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Re: It slid last week so it's good…right?
« Reply #38 on: 04/01/14, 09:53 AM »

Sometimes FSG and I agree, sometimes we don't.

No such thing as perfect accuracy when it comes to prediction and snows desire to slide down the hill. I appreciate NWAC and Jeff Wards efforts. Much better that anything we've had in the past.

Matt
yea matt, but the system could be better. As jeff points out  more field observations are better for nwac forecasts. Most of the folks who use nwac don't send observations. I have a few guesses as to why bc skiers don't contribute. Maybe they don't  want to share where they are skiing  for fear of the mass followers or don't feel comfortable with the R2D2 abbreviated language? At any rate, i was just informed that forecasters recieve very little field reports   and have to spend time reading sites like tay for observations. I also just learned that the 'powder cache' avy incident report was sent to the CAIC. 
« Last Edit: 04/01/14, 04:41 PM by freeskiguy » Logged

"I'm not making love to anyones wishes, only for that light I see." Cat Stevens
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