Avy Hazard thoughts Memorial Weekend 2013

Sent the below email today to my 17 yo son about skiing this weekend. For those thinking about going out, what are your thoughts??????

"I know you have been learning a lot this year (gave him a technical Avy book for Christmas), and now its time to add your opinion to any possible ski trip. The more brain power always the better when making choices that can possibly end your life.

Yet, there has also been a lot of talk this year about “group dynamics”. The Tunnel Creek slide has been the case study, where they kept going just because it was a large group and there was a feeling of safety just because.

Well, that is never true. An avy doesn’t care how many people are in its path. For me, since I go solo so much, having a partner makes me get more adventurous yet it shouldn’t. The group dynamic, feeling safer cause there is someone around.

So, the NWAC posted an Avy bulletin on Wednesday with this weeks cool temps and snow:

Concerns: Potentially dangerous storm slab avalanche conditions should be expected in back country or uncontrolled areas especially in the central and south Cascades on varied aspects. Regardless of the low snow levels and cool temperatures heavy snow at this time of year is very susceptible to sun effects and daytime warming. Snow that falls during the daytime hours on Wednesday and Thursday will also be heavier due to warmer daytime temperatures which will cause denser surface snow and hence further instability. Natural and triggered avalanches should be possible or likely at higher elevations on Wednesday and Thursday especially in the central and south Cascades where snowfall is heaviest. Potential dangerous avalanche conditions should be expected. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route finding and conservative decision making should be essential.
Loose wet snow avalanche conditions should also become more likely by Friday and into the weekend. Poor or dangerous snow and avalanche conditions should also be expected at higher elevations on the volcanoes especially in the central and south Cascades.

From the telemetrys and cams it has snowed a bit at Crystal and Paradise. So there might be a foot+ of new that we need to think about. That certainly is enough new to make it deadly given the right circumstances.

Weather is also a big consideration, just no fun climbing in to bad weather. But more so the sun coming out and baking the snow.

Let’s talk this afternoon…..

I ski- toured Crystal yesterday. There was a lot of new snow especially on West aspects ( 12"or more in places) and it wasn't particularly well bonded. We ski cut the hell out of it and I got one small 6" slab to shear). It skied OK but was warming very fast and by noon, tree bombing was in full effect and natural sluffing was occurring off Bear Pit cliffs and lookers left of Powder Bowl.

It was cold up there but even the small clouds breaks provided enough solar for immediate snowpack reaction.

We backed off a particular run as we felt the danger level was increasing to an unacceptable level and we would be in the zone too long skinning out.

Personally I'd be very cautious this weekend and make appropriate terrain choices and plans... my 2 cents.

Thanks for the post Griff -- good to keep it in the front of the mind.

We backed off a particular run as we felt the danger level was increasing to an unacceptable level and we would be in the zone too long skinning out.

I love hearing stuff like this -- backing off a tempting run is hard to do. Thanks for sharing this Chris, glad you're getting out and staying safe.

Me, I'm avoiding danger by sticking my head in textbooks all weekend...

Thank you for the thoughts, and a real field report which is exactly what I was hoping to get.

I too was "guessing" from the temps and the snow structure (upside down??) that it would be "sensitive" to use a term commonly used at Alpy by the patrol. LOL. Well, certainly not bonded well, and with the possible warming temps and increased sun, making for easy to go conditions.

Having been too busy to get out since May 5th, I felt like I had "lost touch" with the conditions. My wife thinks I am nuts when I look at telemetry's all day, yet I always respond its just to keep my alive. I think she likes that........HAHA.

I was debating taking the kid up to Rainier and looking at the Nisqually Chutes, but maybe that terrain will be a bit on the steep side for the conditions. Plan B can always just be a Muir run, which he has never done and it has been 10 years at least for me.

Have a great weekend TAY family!!!

And of course, THANK YOU that have served our great country in the military and all that have lost a loved one as a result. My father was a WWII vet and brother Vietnam vet............thank you!

Thanks Griff and Marcus.
I think the biggest concern I have for this weekend is the "goal" orientated trap. Like others ,we had big plans for this weekend coinciding with road openings and getting something "meaningful" done rather than just faffing around in Green Valley @ Crystal.
I was just on the phone with a ski partner who wanted to know if the touring plan for the weekend was "on". I told then I didn't think so and that if we went it would be not the original goal and something meadow skippy. They were disappointed as they where hoping for something " big".
We also have some interwebz friends who were coming up from afar to ski Rainier, and they no doubt will be considering their objective.
Everybody needs to make their own assessment and there could be some good safe skiing out there but the goal needs to fit the conditions assessment.
Skiing heavy May pow yesterday was fun but frankly I wish it hadn't snowed.