1/1/13 Conditions Update from Stevens Pass Patrol

Got this via a friend from the Stevens Pass Patrol blog , thought it was worth putting up:

Greetings Patrol, NPACers and NWACers,

What a December it’s been at 208” of snowfall. Record here at Stevens…228” 96/97.

The past 3 weeks we are finding a Moderate Shear Quality of 1 between 90 & 120cms, depending on aspect, on a thin layer of Surface Hoar remnants and Facets. December has been consistent with snowfall and cold temperatures with one 7 hour wind event and no observed avalanche activity on this layer outside the ski area boundary………………YET.

This shear layer needs some sort of change to react. Over the next several days predicted warming with little to no precipitation. Supposed to stay relatively cold in the passes and east slopes. This means inversions. 7-10,000 foot freezing levels through the weekend.

I remember several avalanche events on blue sky days 1-3 weeks after a storm where simultaneous skier/boarder triggered avalanches occurred. Even though this weaker shear layer is not as prevalent as in the past the ingredients are stacking up…..inversions, warming up high, blue sky and a big weekend.

Several days ago on my way home from work I never saw so many skiers heading up Henry Creek, maybe several hundred, parking and walking up the highway up to a mile away.

January weather predictions are for moderate to heavy precipitation on the west slope and light to occasionally moderate on the east slope.  This means inversions, buried crusts, surface hoar and facets throughout the month.

Caution over the next week above 4700’ with the warming.