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Topic: Mt. Rainier, Longmire-Paradise Road opening matrix (Read 1552 times)
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Andrew Carey
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I just ran across this; I had not seen it before; it is dated 11/10, so it may have been created last fall; it might be useful to bc enthusiasts:
Will the road to Paradise open?
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... want your own private skintrack? :-) better move to the yukon dude ....(B'ham Allen, 2011).
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Andy Carey, Nisqually Park, 3500 feet below Paradise
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vogtski
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Sorry Andy, but I think this road opening decision tree is more useful to cover-your-ass NPS managers looking for an excuse to keep Paradise closed than to bc enthusiasts. Note that any one of the following, a winter storm watch, forecast high avy hazard, observed avy activity (usually roadcut sluffs), wind, fog, or insufficient staff - can be used to justify remaining closed. So far, this year's box score is 38 non-openings, 12 post-noon openings, 5 early closures, and two stealth openings (when announced closed).
It would be more useful for those wishing to ski in a Washington National Park to remember Stormking's conclusion on the Occupy Hurricane Ridge thread: "If it snows at all the road is late or closed." If you want to be sure of an early start, or of skiing at all, wait until the Paradise Inn opens (May 18th), when the road is no longer locked nightly at Longmire.
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I feel like I'm diagonally parked in a parallel universe.
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Andrew Carey
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There may be some CYA in this, but it is the first decision tree I have seen for their process (you may have seen others) and it fits very nicely with their decisions this year; I don't recall any previous mention of a formal introduction of the Mt. Rainier Rec Forecast and the NWAC avy forecast into a decision tree; and the addition of just "high" (instead of extreme) avy danger combined with a "deep snow pack" seems to me to be an interesting new development (but the whole thing may be old hat in your experience).
What this decision tree says to me, rather unequivocally, is there will be many more predictable closures--you won't have to bother to drive to Longmire and wait to see if the get will open.
It seems rather certain that the conditions under which the climbers and snowshoers got lost this year (forecast snow and high winds) will no longer be available to the foolhardy.
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... want your own private skintrack? :-) better move to the yukon dude ....(B'ham Allen, 2011).
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Andy Carey, Nisqually Park, 3500 feet below Paradise
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davidG
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In complete agreement with Gary on this one. When I saw dialogue box #2 (and then #4), I chuckled and wondered if they really believe that this qualifies as a decision making process - loaded with subjectivity and few metrics. Perhaps internally they have objective standards for what is 'enough' LEOs, etc. At least, I suppose, it panders to the would-be believers.
It will be interesting, though, as Andy notes, whether they, through this matrix or otherwise, will attempt to more often preclude access during difficult conditions - not that many of us would want that to happen..
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"Maybe we should ban hikers from anywhere that there is a potential threat to surface water?" [courtesy Newtrout, 2011]
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Andrew Carey
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My main interest in posting the matrix was to "inform" the bc skiers who have to travel from Olympia, Seattle, and beyond to get to the park. If they want to make a day of it, they have to decide the day before and leave before the park tweets and get to Longmire, playing gate opening roulette. If I lived in Olympia (like I used to) I would make my decisions about whether or not to plan to take a day off and load up the car by using the matrix, the Rec Forecast, and then NWAC avy forecast--believe or not, it would reduce the probability of getting to Longmire to find out the gate won't open. I didn't have the matrix in the past. I never did, nor would I now, play the cynicism game "it snowed, so it won't open." I'd rather buy a season pass to Crystal (like many others) and save my Paradise skiing for summer, spring, and fall; or like many I know, just quit skiing in Mt. Rainier during the winter due the uncertainty of gate openings. Now that I live outside the gate (like Vogtski) or not too far away like Dave, I can sit in front of my fire, with a cup of coffee, check the tweets, look at the Paradise webcams and decide whether and when to load up the car for Paradise or go do some ski patrol on MTTA.
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... want your own private skintrack? :-) better move to the yukon dude ....(B'ham Allen, 2011).
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Andy Carey, Nisqually Park, 3500 feet below Paradise
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Scotsman
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So what part of this Matrix made them wait until 9 ish on Monday to open the damn gate.....melting asphalt due to high temperatures? No air conditioning in the Park truck?... Coffee maker not working.....donut delivery delayed?
Your matrix is about as useful as a chocolate teapot. 
Although I did get nice cup of coffee at the Longmire Inn and speak to a nice lady in her, I guess late 50's who had short bright red, almost purple hair and had just started a job there having come from the NP in Death Valley.
She had a thumb ring as well.
Thumb rings on women over 50.......mutton dressed as lamb IMHO.
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« Last Edit: 04/24/12, 04:56 PM by Scotsman »
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Andrew Carey
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sorry I posted it ... and btw it is not my matrix, just MRNP officially stated procedure; should have just let it be ... we all have our opinions and they are paramount, no further info needed ... oh, and rest assured, I won't make that mistake again ... carry on ... oh, and if you are having trouble making up your mind about going to Paradise, just pm Vogtsk, DavidG, or Scotsman and they will provide you with the truth ...
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« Last Edit: 04/24/12, 05:11 PM by Andrew Carey »
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... want your own private skintrack? :-) better move to the yukon dude ....(B'ham Allen, 2011).
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Andy Carey, Nisqually Park, 3500 feet below Paradise
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davidG
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Well, just to be clear, as I apparently wasn't, I thought your observation about resulting predictability and how it might keep people off the mountain when they shouldn't be there was interesting, and said so.. (so don't PM me..  ) It remains worrisome, however, that someone charged with daily implementation of a now published process (with plenty of waffle room) is IMO more likely to skew toward more closures and delayed openings than adopting an attitude of 'c'mon, let's git 'er open'.
It may be useful to note, however, that not all Park winter visitors are 'hardcore' and some would benefit from being 'told' not to come - a decision matrix still perhaps, involving both objective and subjective criteria geared toward advising a prospective visitor rather than creating a pseudo defensible position for more closures.
As for mutton dressed as lamb, now that's funny stuff...
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"Maybe we should ban hikers from anywhere that there is a potential threat to surface water?" [courtesy Newtrout, 2011]
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Andrew Carey
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As for mutton dressed as lamb, now that's funny stuff...
That is funny--I had never hear it before; but since we are avidly consuming the half of a lamb we bought and enjoying immensely, I certainly will keep a lookout for any kind of mutton dressed as lamb 
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... want your own private skintrack? :-) better move to the yukon dude ....(B'ham Allen, 2011).
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Andy Carey, Nisqually Park, 3500 feet below Paradise
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vogtski
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So what part of this Matrix made them wait until 9 ish on Monday to open the damn gate.....melting asphalt due to high temperatures? No air conditioning in the Park truck?... Coffee maker not working.....donut delivery delayed?
Mondays and Tuesdays tend to be slower than average because most staff work on weekends and many have M-Tu off. Probably nine-oclock was when the 1st LE ranger came on duty that day. I can see where one ranger shift could last from dawn to dark in winter, but I don't understand this late start scheduling in Spring, since someone else would need to start work in the afternoon to have LE coverage until the gate closes at 8-9 PM.
On reconsideration, I've decided that Andy was right and this decision tree might be of some use to non-locals unfamilar with the winter gate situation, but it still seems easier to just remember Stormking's Law.
FWIW, the daily phone & Twitter messages don't always agree on opening estimates. Sometimes the entrance station or the message board on the Longmire gate will also have contradictory information. This winter, the phone message was often posted between 6-7 AM, while the Twitter message was sometimes quite a bit later. However, the phone message is almost never updated, while Twitter commonly is. All bets are off during snowstorms, but when there is little or no new snow, the actual opening is often earlier than the estimates. Either it's the CYA NPS culture or they think beating their own estimate somehow makes them look good.
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I feel like I'm diagonally parked in a parallel universe.
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davidG
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On reconsideration, I've decided that Andy was right and this decision tree might be of some use to non-locals unfamilar with the winter gate situation, but it still seems easier to just remember Stormking's Law.
i guess Gary doesn't want to get PM'd either...
There's nothing about that matrix, in total, that holds water, if the object is to provide useful info to a potential visitor. If the Park wants to say that it will be closed under conditions of extreme avalanche warning (and provide the NWAC link), or something definitively similar, I may grudgingly live with that, but subjectivity pretending to be something else is bullshit.
Yet, Vogtski brings great wisdom w/part 2.... Stormkings Law.. all hail..
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"Maybe we should ban hikers from anywhere that there is a potential threat to surface water?" [courtesy Newtrout, 2011]
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vogtski
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Like Gary's Law of Weather (Bad weather follows good, and vice versa), Stormking's Law of NPS Access (If it snows, the road is late or closed) is wise, even infallible, but useless at decision time. 
I know quite a few skiers from the lowlands who bring XC gear to Mt Rainier in addition to their preferred skis, as Andy describes. But then, I know even more who've been dissappointed so many times they won't bother with Paradise in winter.
I totally agree with David about the subjectiveness of the 'nanny state' NPS decision process and the likelihood that this winter's accidents will result in even less access in future winters. I think about the most skiers can hope for from the NPS is that the open/closed decision is made earlier and the various Park public information outlets have the same message each day.
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I feel like I'm diagonally parked in a parallel universe.
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runningw/scissors
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So what part of this Matrix made them wait until 9 ish on Monday to open the damn gate.....melting asphalt due to high temperatures? No air conditioning in the Park truck?... Coffee maker not working.....donut delivery delayed?
Monday 4/23 from 0630 - 0900 the road crew was moving the snow cat and the snow thrower from paradise to Stevens Canyon Y on a flat-bed. As you can imagine, a Pisten Bully on a flat bed blocks both lanes.
On glacier hill there was a boulder big enough that it required a bobcat to remove it and a small sluff avi debris pile about 3 ft deep in the downhill lane.
On warm days like we had that weekend there is a ton of rockfall onto the road along glacer hill and between Narada Falls and the sewege treatment facility.
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« Last Edit: 05/02/12, 11:00 PM by runningw/scissors »
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Andrew Carey
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THANKS! for the information runningwscissors; all such info is highly valued (by me, at least).
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... want your own private skintrack? :-) better move to the yukon dude ....(B'ham Allen, 2011).
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Andy Carey, Nisqually Park, 3500 feet below Paradise
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ron j
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Me Too ! 
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"When I stop having fun I'm turnin' around"
“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future.” - Niels Bohr
"If a given person makes it a priority not to die in an avalanche, he or she stands a very good chance of living a long, happy life in the mountains." - Jill Fredston
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davidG
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Totally! Info is everything..
Piston Bully? Really? If we're especially nice runningw/scissors, can you get just a couple of swaths groomed, here and there...?
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"Maybe we should ban hikers from anywhere that there is a potential threat to surface water?" [courtesy Newtrout, 2011]
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runningw/scissors
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Yeah they were on their way to groom the bowls next to Pinnacle peak & the Castle. Then they're gonna take care of Nisqually chute (cause its getting a little skied out), and if we're lucky maybe they can use a winch cat to groom Fuhrer Finger later in the season. Crevasse rescue is soooo much easier with a snow cat!
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vogtski
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After a quickly deleted tweet last week, it now (8:43am today) appears the road to Paradise is no longer locked nightly:
"The gate to Paradise is open unless posted otherwise. Closures still possible depending on weather. Check here for changes in status'"
http://twitter.com/#!/MountRainierNPS
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I feel like I'm diagonally parked in a parallel universe.
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