I attended a pilot workshop last night on "Decision Making for Experienced Backcountry Travelers" presented by NWAC Friends of NWAC at the Mountaineers in Seattle. I'd like to share my takeaways.
I learned one thing for sure: I can always do more to mitigate the hazards of group dynamics in avalanche terrain. The workshop was a pilot for a series under consideration by the Mountaineers FOAC. I hope they decide to offer it. Human factors are always present, from the moment two people start planning a day in the backcountry. The factors can't be eliminated, only managed in the moment. "Unfortunately, we can't leave the humans at home," said mountain guide and avy uber-trainer Margaret Wheeler, who led the workshop.
The building blocks of Margaret's lecture were three "stages" of backcountry decision making: planning the tour, making observations, and group dynamics. In a breakout group exercise we practiced on a hypothetical scenario. Margaret finished the evening with a case study from her experience.
For the first stage of decision making, she offered common-sense steps to planning a route based on recreation goals and backcountry conditions. Every Avalanche I class includes a similar discussion of research and route selection. The second stage involved a distillation of advice like what you find in Secrets of the Snow -- wind effects, bonding, temps, recent activity -- but focused on planning ahead for when and where the party should make what observations.
Stage three, group dynamics, was the crux of the workshop. What hazards do my party and I create? Are we victims of our own summit fever, one person's halo effect, or our herd mentality? (Chapter 10 of Staying Alive in Avalanche Terrain expands very well on this subject.) What is our level of uncertainty? How will we manage the human factors?
In the brief exercise, groups of 5-6 participants were given a topo map, telemetry (recent heavy snowfall), weather forecast (more warm snow and wind) and avalanche forecasts (rising to high). Our assignment was to choose two routes out of Alpental, noting terrain hazards and decision points on our map.
Along with the usual en-route observations, we decided we should take special note of evidence that would confirm the avy forecast of poorly bonded wind and storm slab formations. Uncertainty was particularly high about wind directions and freezing levels at Snoqualmie Pass in the preceding 24 hours. Our observations would include an early test pit at the first slope similar to what we planned to ski.
Everyone in my group jumped right into the route planning discussion. It was easy to spot some of the human factors at play -- familiarity, acceptance, herding, halo -- we joked about it at times. Together we marked the our routes with decision points and hazards. We also acknowledged the hazards presented by our varied skill levels and by most of us not knowing each other. Overall I felt we did a great job.
What about managing group dynamics while on the tour? We chose predetermined points along our route where we would discuss our observations as a group and decide how to proceed -- or to turn back. We would take into account the voices of all members of the party, just as we had done in the planning discussion; any member could veto a decision.
After the exercise, Margaret asked for a show of hands of people who really wouldn't want to go out at all in the given conditions. One of our party raised his hand -- a reluctance that had not been voiced in our discussions. We didn't do such a great job, after all.
Margaret said case studies invite us to ask what would lead us to make the same mistakes. Her capstone story was of a trip where a group of guides and Mountaineers trip leaders went where they shouldn't have, but narrowly "threaded the needle" and avoided disaster. A lone snowshoer followed her group's tracks into an avy path and died.
To her, the story illustrated several human factors strongly influencing her party. To me, it highlighted the one that was fatal that day: social proof, following others on the assumption they know best.
Mountaineers FOAC might offer a series of workshops on backcountry decision making in 2012.
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