Updates??- 2 climbers, 2 campers overdue...Rainier

Has anyone heard an outcome to these?

Seattle Times: 2 climbers, 2 campers overdue on Mount Rainier

Not looking good at all, since they were not found in the hut at Camp Muir during a search yesterday. These two stories from the News Tribune have the most info:

blog.thenewstribune.com/adventure/2012/0...for-missing-parties/

blog.thenewstribune.com/adventure/2012/0...her-suspends-search/

Not looking good at all, since they were not found in the hut at Camp Muir during a search yesterday. These two stories from the News Tribune have the most info:

blog.thenewstribune.com/adventure/2012/0...for-missing-parties/

blog.thenewstribune.com/adventure/2012/0...her-suspends-search/

Arghh

Is that their car being plowed around at the Paradise lot? That looks really depressing.

Is that their car being plowed around at the Paradise lot?  That looks really depressing.

The car has been there since just after 10am on Friday, January 13 (it is not parked in the proper overnight parking area). So based on various news stories, that could be the vehicle of Mark Vucich and Michelle Trojanowski, the hikers who departed on Friday to camp on the Muir Snowfield. But other stories state that they departed on Thursday, so ??. No departure date has been given for the two missing unnamed climbers in whatever new stories I looked at via Google search.

I just finished Laurence Gonzales's book Deep Survival for the second time.  He gives the hard science and detailed survival stories on how and why people survive.  Gives me a lot of hope these folks will make it through this.

abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/weather-bloc...-mt-rainier-15408064

More limited searches didn't find anything today.

Wow, they flew a chinook around up there today and none of the campers came out. Those poor souls.

Gives details of the search yesterday - www.kplr11.com/news/nationworld/kcpq-ini...0119,0,4213726.story

The two lessons I came away with from the same book (Deep Survival), is that nature plays no favorites and if you intentionally push the envelope, she will hammer you.  The weekend these 4 chose to climb to Muir was bitter cold and harsh weather (-7 at Muir with 25-40mph winds).  I think that is a set up for disaster.

Dr. Telemark

I just finished Laurence Gonzales's book Deep Survival for the second time.  He gives the hard science and detailed survival stories on how and why people survive.  Gives me a lot of hope these folks will make it through this.

The weekend these 4 chose to climb to Muir was bitter cold and harsh weather (-7 at Muir with 25-40mph winds).  I think that is a set up for disaster.

Can anyone find a weather forecast for the 12th through the 16th?  I would like to know what the parties were reading before they headed up.  What did they interpret incorrectly?  Mark Vucich is reported as a guide in training.  If that is true it makes it all the more bizarre.  The other two that planned on summiting that weekend! 

It was reported that the search aircraft saw no body heat and I read somewhere that the ground crew found some clues to indicate where the campers might be but it did not say what those clues were.  Did the ground crews have dogs?   

No dogs were used that I know of. Weather made search and travel very difficult in the days immediately following the parties' disappearance. From what little I know about dog teams, dogs would have been useless. And a liability. More than 7 feet of snow has fallen since the teams went missing, with high winds during most of that time.

The two climbers were experienced. The two campers were just that- a pair of folks out for some winter camping. The story is very sad, no matter what the forecast was. Personally, I sometimes enjoy going out with projected bad weather. If only because it's nice to occasionally tap into the part of oneself that makes a decision to turn around. Opportunities for humility should be sought out, not avoided. It's also beneficial to experience things with one's own eyes. I'm not saying or implying that anybody posting here feels any differently. I just want to express the deep sadness I feel for those 4 people and the families and friends who love them.

Can anyone find a weather forecast for the 12th through the 16th?  I would like to know what the parties were reading before they headed up.  What did they interpret incorrectly?  Mark Vucich is reported as a guide in training.  If that is true it makes it all the more bizarre.  The other two that planned on summiting that weekend! 

Well, here are the relevant forecasts.

The Rainier forecast as of January 13 which was available to the two campers (who apparently parked their car at Paradise at 10am on January 13 and intended to return by January 15) and the two climbers also:

MOUNT RAINIER RECREATIONAL FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
400 AM PST FRI JAN 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
TODAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH RAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE PARK SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS THE COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION LOWERS THE
SNOW LEVEL TO BELOW 500 FEET. COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
NEXT WEEK WITH A POSSIBILITY OF LOWLAND SNOW AT TIMES. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. FREEZING LEVEL 6500 FEET.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. FREEZING LEVEL 7000 FEET.
.SATURDAY...RAIN AND SNOW CHANGING TO SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL 3000 FEET.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
.SUNDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.

TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECASTS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

                        FRI    FRI    SAT    SAT    SUN 
                             NIGHT         NIGHT       

SUMMIT   (14411 FT)      8      6     -2    -24    -26
                       W 48   W 71   W 91   W 48   W 30

CAMP MUIR(10188 FT)     24     23      5     -4     -4
                       W 30   W 57   W 52   W 40   W 25

PARADISE  (5420 FT)     43     29     35     19     22
                       W  4   W 11  SW 17  SW 10  SW  8

LONGMIRE  (2700 FT)     41     31     36     23     26
                       W  2  NW  8  SW 14  SW 10  SW  8

++ TEMPERATURES AND WIND FOR THE SUMMIT AND CAMP MUIR ARE AVERAGE
    CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE FREE AIR AT THOSE ELEVATIONS.
++ TEMPERATURES FOR PARADISE AND LONGMIRE ARE THE EXPECTED HIGHS AND
    LOWS. WIND IS THE AVERAGE WIND EXPECTED DURING THAT PERIOD.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...

.SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS.
.MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL
2000 FEET.



The Rainier forecast as of January 14 which may have been available to the two climbers, who intended to return by January 16:

MOUNT RAINIER RECREATIONAL FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
425 AM PST SAT JAN 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT A COOL AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON LOWERING THE SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO NEAR THE SURFACE. THE
COOL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
 
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING...

.SATURDAY...SNOW CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LATE MORNING.
SNOW LEVEL 3000 FEET LOWERING DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOON.
NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION 3 TO 6 INCHES.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 4 INCHES.
.SUNDAY...SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
.MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.

TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECASTS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

                        SAT    SAT    SUN    SUN    MON 
                             NIGHT         NIGHT       

SUMMIT   (14411 FT)     -1    -24    -26    -25    -21
                      W 100   W 60   W 40  NW 45   W 70

CAMP MUIR(10188 FT)      5     -4     -4     -7     -3
                       W 75   W 45   W 35   W 45   W 60

PARADISE  (5420 FT)     29     15     21     10     19
                       W 15  SW 10   W  5   W  5   W 10

LONGMIRE  (2700 FT)     31     19     24     17     23
                       CALM   CALM   CALM   CALM   CALM

++ TEMPERATURES AND WIND FOR THE SUMMIT AND CAMP MUIR ARE AVERAGE
    CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE FREE AIR AT THOSE ELEVATIONS.
++ TEMPERATURES FOR PARADISE AND LONGMIRE ARE THE EXPECTED HIGHS AND
    LOWS. WIND IS THE AVERAGE WIND EXPECTED DURING THAT PERIOD.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL 1500 FEET.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL
3000 FEET.


Given the forecasts it is very hard to avoid being judgmental, there is little room to incorrectly interpret anything. It appears to be an unreasonable decision to begin a multiday Rainier summit attempt under these forecast conditions of wind and temperature at 14000 ft on Sunday-Monday, or choose to go "snow camping" for 3 days on the Muir Snowfield given the 10000 ft forecast for Saturday-Sunday.

That's assuming that they looked at the Rainier forecast at all -- but who knows if they relied only on TV weather, or perhaps the NWS point forecasts (which are often highly erroneous for mountainous areas, since they are not intended or designed as a mountain forecast, and generally grossly under-forecast the winds and over-forecast the snowfall). But all forecasts from all sources, TV or otherwise, were very poor and heading farther downhill fast, with an extended period of stormy weather starting on January 14 and continuing for many days. Both parties apparently chose to ascend into extremely dangerous incoming weather which was predicted to worsen throughout the duration of their trips.

This happens and has happened all too frequently with parties who fly to Rainier from distant locations (for these parties San Diego, Atlanta, and Korea). Apparently the money already invested in plane tickets, plus vacation time and other preparation, affects the judgment and risk tolerance of some of these parties, leading them to ascend into much riskier weather forecasts than local parties would -- this is simply an observational truth based on many previous incidents at Rainier and Hood. Locals make the same mistake too, but those who fly here make it much more often.

It is really sad that these four remain missing and are now presumed dead. But just because it's so sad, doesn't mean that both parties are without fault and are beyond criticism. They exhibited some very poor judgment in choosing to embark on their trips at all when they did, and have apparently paid the ultimate price for that. As usual, their decisions have led to large numbers of search-and-rescue personnel putting themselves in considerable danger in miserable weather conditions trying to find and save them. Really unfortunate that this harsh lesson had to be delivered by the Mountain once again, a lesson to be heeded by everyone going up there, and one which I hope I've learned from my own past mistakes and those of others.


[size=small]Edited to rephrase the first paragraph of my comments, per the discussion later on in this thread.[/size]

I remember reading that forecast for the 14th and calculating which wind chill was worst on the summit, 100mph winds and -1F or 60mph and -24F. The 100mph didn't compute on some scales as the max was 60mph! I can onlty imagine how the families feel not knowing any further details.

Thank you Amar

My biggest fear climbing and skiing in the mountains is not injury, maiming, or death. It's the eventual thread that calls me out on my poor judgment. That and the negative comments on the King 5 website bitching about how much I cost Joe and Jane Fatrolls in my rescue effort.

As alpinists, we're all aware of the risks, and from time to time we push the envelope and the mountains put the smackdown on us. If we make it out, we're lauded for keeping our head together, finding solutions that led to our survival. But we all know that it could have gone the other way, inspiring the inevitable armchairing. I've been guilty of second-guessing victims online or amongst friends, so I try to be conscious of keeping it to myself.

Poor judgment or not, take from this event what you will. As competent mountaineers, we can individually look at the elements that led to this tragic accident and come to our own conclusion without calling the deceased out publicly.

Very well said Ryan and jwplotz.

My biggest fear climbing and skiing in the mountains is not injury, maiming, or death.  It's the eventual thread that calls me out on my poor judgment.  That and the negative comments on the King 5 website bitching about how much I cost Joe and Jane Fatrolls in my rescue effort.

As alpinists, we're all aware of the risks, and from time to time we push the envelope and the mountains put the smackdown on us.  If we make it out, we're lauded for keeping our head together, finding solutions that led to our survival.  But we all know that it could have gone the other way, inspiring the inevitable armchairing.  I've been guilty of second-guessing victims online or amongst friends, so I try to be conscious of keeping it to myself. 

Poor judgment or not, take from this event what you will.  As competent mountaineers, we can individually look at the elements that led to this tragic accident and come to our own conclusion without calling the deceased out publicly.

Sorry, John, but I disagree with most of what you've written here.

If, as is perhaps likely, I someday become incapacitated or meet my end in the mountains due to accident, happenstance, and/or my own poor judgment, then I'd welcome well-considered discussion and criticism of my actions, whether I'm alive or dead. I have no fear whatsoever of that -- although invariably and unfortunately, some large fraction of the discussion and criticism (especially in comments on news website stories) may be totally erroneous and not well-considered at all, largely made by those with no concept of what mountaineering or climbing involves. But analysis and criticism of my actions from those with knowledge and experience in my chosen activities (skiing, mountaineering, whatever) is not something that I would fear or avoid. If I live through whatever that future situation may be, I'd probably be the first to turn the glaring light of criticism towards my own actions, most likely in a public forum as with the TR you link to.

I've also never understood why some people think that those who die should suddenly become immune to criticism or negative comment after their passing. I have many faults -- and they won't instantly and retroactively disappear once I die (although hopefully I'll continue to work on improving those areas while I'm still alive) -- so I wouldn't want any rosy false picture presented of me or my actions afterwards.

I knew while I was writing my post above (everything after merely copying the Rainier forecasts) that some would find what I wrote too judgmental, especially since I've come close to meeting my end in the mountains more than once already. But there are lessons in what happened to the 4 who are missing on Rainier that need to be pointed out, because clearly these lessons are not obvious to everybody, even those of us who may be alpinists or competent mountaineers and may be aware of the risks.

If even one person takes it to heart to not ascend into a very poor, downward-trending forecast on Rainier and lives because of that, then the criticism and comments above will have served a positive purpose. Or if even one person properly uses the NWS Mount Rainier recreational forecast (with an accurate picture of high winds) instead of the ridiculous and inaccurate NWS point forecasts (which always have mountain winds which are too low), and thus saves their own life instead of climbing into a predictable disaster, then the comments above will have also served a positive purpose.

Refraining from well-considered analysis and criticism of an incident serves no constructive purpose, and is just hiding our heads in the sand.

I'm more concerned about the effects on survivors: friends, family, children.

Criticism about decisions made and paths chosen often gets ruthless, even brutal. I try to bear in mind the effect that my words might have on, say, kids, husbands, wives, parents or close friends who are perhaps already devastated. I find it thoroughly inconsiderate to start piling on so quickly.

Mark

I'm more concerned about the effects on survivors: friends, family, children.  

This pretty much sums up where I am on this type of thing -- it's not a matter of immunity to criticism, but a matter of respect for the fallen and their family.  In the weeks after Monika's accident last year the number of visits to the forum had a huge spike, since it was probably the best place to get the latest information.  Friends and family, craving every little detail or clinging to a scrap of hope, are going to read over our every word on the subject.  It's hard enough to handle the grief without having to filter out the harsh criticism that this kind of analysis can quickly become.

Well, that's the dilemma, isn't it: if you hold back on any analysis or criticism of an incident out of respect for family and friends, then you may lose the chance to publicize important lessons which could be learned from the incident. If you wait until after a lengthy grieving period has passed (months, a year?) then the incident has faded from public view, and the important lessons will not be widely heard even if presented then. For the first time in my life, I dealt with the death of two close friends in the mountains within the past year, so I'm certainly much more sensitive to the issues regarding grief of family and friends than I was before. But even more so after those two fatal accidents last year, I don't think that family and friends should be shielded from the truth, or that public discussion of an incident should be avoided.

If their loved ones died in an unavoidable freak accident, then that is very important to know, and the family and friends always get told about that by rescuers -- but on the other hand, if their loved ones used poor judgment which was the primary contributor to and cause of the accident, then the rescuers and family liaisons scrupulously avoid any mention of that "out of respect". So the family and friends are left with a false, positively-skewed picture of what actually transpired in those cases, which in the long run does them a great disservice.

Not all incidents have important lessons to be learned -- some really are primarily freak accidents where the only thing that would have saved someone is random chance or staying home. But other incidents are not accidents at all, and may have been easily avoidable or preventable, in which case important lessons are there to be learned and the details should be exposed to public view. I think that in those types of incidents, facts should be publicized quickly if they are known, while the issue is still hot and people are actually listening and might possibly learn from it. It may make the grief more difficult temporarily for family and friends, but I'm certain that it is the right thing to do. Obviously, many others disagree with me strongly on this issue, and prefer to keep the frank discussions hidden and the lessons unpublicized.

We are people who routinely indulge in recreational activities which are, on the evidence, risky. We've all had friends--sometimes close friends--die in the mountains, often doing more or less what we do every weekend. We've discussed the embedded issues a lot, year after year. In a very important sense, we're ready.

Friends and family, particularly young children, are not so ready. They haven't spent the time we have experimenting with the odds, discussing the possibilities, adjusting to what might happen. This makes them far more vulnerable than you, I, or the average participant here. They're even more vulnerable--far, far more vulnerable--in the days and weeks immediately following a death.

There's a strong case to be made here for seeing things from their point of view, not ours. I just edited out a rather snotty paragraph I'd written about this being the essence of adulthood, but the essential point remains.

Mark

No one forces these people to read this stuff. Perhaps they are responsible for, and capable of, making the decisions about what they care to read when they are bereaved? It's not like posters are getting in their face and expressing their opinions...people have a choice as to what they read. That being said, self-editing is not a bad thing, nor is considering how others may feel.

my best friend was killed in an avoidable snow accident and i'm positive he will want others to not make his deadly mistake. helping others seems to be the tay mantra in times of good and bad, amar is a huge help to this community.
best of luck to the masses
bobbyfreibrg

It's hard enough to handle the grief without having to filter out the harsh criticism that this kind of analysis can quickly become.

What I don't understand is why the criticism has to be so harsh? The more awareness created about preventing mountain accidents the better. I don't see anything wrong with putting out there the truth as long as its tactfully done. Why the critique needs to turn an ugly condescending head is beyond me.

Everything about mountaineering and backcountry skiing involves risks, of which not everyone who participates may be aware of, this doesn't make them irresponsible, just that sometimes, there is a steep learning curve. If I die on the mountain put it out there, but do it tactfully... my family will find closure knowing the truth. No closure can be found with questions unanswered, its obvious a mistake was made. I think more should be made public about destination mountaineering affecting decision making... (IMO a factor at play here)

My deepest wishes of survival to the missing on Rainier.

I think it is possible to provide useful and accurate insight into mistakes made while also being respectful to folks that have made those mistakes -- whether or not those mistakes were fatal or not. This does require extra effort than the standard armchair quarterbacking -- but isn't that what we should be doing anyway on this board? Describing choices made as mistakes, rather than labeling the persons that made those choices is a good first step.

Overall I think the folks posting on on T-A-Y do carefully choose their words and avoid ill considered posts.

It has been a difficult season at Mt Rainier, I know that the fatality in late December has a big impact on the morale of the rangers, the murder of Margaret Anderson was a huge blow and now these four lost people. At least they did find that lost snowshoer alive -- one bright spot in an otherwise bleak season at the park.

The Park is soliciting reports for evidence such as gear; details at:
blog.thenewstribune.com/adventure/2012/01/28/5846/
I've heard rumors there was no evidence either party ever reached the Muir shelter?

At least they did find that lost snowshoer alive -- one bright spot in an otherwise bleak season at the park.

Actually, they found 3 lost snowshoers alive that same day!

Only one of them got any press attention though, because only he had been reported missing and thus was being searched for. But the other two were out in the elements just as long and in the same area. Here's a nice story published yesterday in the News Tribune about their survival epic:

www.thenewstribune.com/2012/01/27/200229...woman-vancouver.html

As usual, there are a few moronic comments from people whose reading comprehension skills are too limited to even understand the news story (the harsh commenters demanding repayment missed the whole point that this couple's rescue cost nothing, since the rescuers were not even looking for them, but for someone else).

Amar, Thank you for sharing your comments which may provide a dialogue to learn from the current situation.

I'm glad the story of the two others did get some coverage in the press - as I understand it - the tea that the woman called the "best tea in the world" came from JHamaker's thermos.