NO SNOW!!

Ohhhhh, what can I say,  ???, looks like it's off to a bad start for the PNW.  check out the Summit at Snoqualmies web page and click on the National Weather Service Seattle office and no I'm not hallucinating they've mentioned 15,000 feet freezing levels.  Face it Global WARMING is happening.  Thanks in great part to our beloved automobiles.  2004 and we are still driving cars, can't anyone think of any other mode of transportation.  When we pray for snow let's pray for another idea to come to mind to better our modes of transportation.  <br><br>You don't know the feeling of speed until you experience it outside the automobile.  Example:  37mph on the flat on a bicycle feels the equivelant of 65mph in a car.  46mph on skates feels the equivelant of 90mph in a car.  51mph on skis on small cun-cupped snow feels like 120+ in a car.  No, I'm not trying to brag or display any sort of ego, other than to say cars are not only contributing to global warming but it's contributing to our weakening bonds between one another, hence: ROADRAGE.  Want our kids to live on the tradition of making turns all year?  Abolish the automobile! &gt;<br> <br>An automobile hater, and proud of it!!! <br>Maybe a little love, after all it beats walking or any other prior form of transportation. Guess I'd call it the ultimate Love and Hate Relationship. &gt; <br>

Donnelly, a few weeks of localized warm weather does not a global phenomenon make.

You gotta believe me. Just go www.summitatsnoqualmie.com click on conditions. Scroll down a bit and you'll see 4 weather links. Click on the 2nd one. You can see for yourself. August freezing levels in December!! Now that's scarier than the scariest episode of the Twilight Zone! Once you see the forcast you'll realize I have not lost my mind. ;)

Check your history..... There were worse ski seasons over 50 years ago so your global warming trend does not prove out. All we have is a slow start this year (it's happened before and will happen again). <br><br>It was only 5 years ago we had 'world record' snow depths in WA..... Baker's world record did not mark the start of a new ice age, and this years slow start doesn't mean a thing except a slow start. We had much worse seasons in the late 70's-early 80's. <br><br>

How can we gripe after such a phenomenal August, September and October? <br><br><br>

Abolish the automobile!

<br>Hmm, that sounds pretty realistic!! <br><br>I got to concur with hyak and Paul, one poor early season most certainly does not conclusive prove anthropogenic climate change. If you wish to make that argument look for data elsewhere.<br><br>Gaper Jeffey

Seems that many scientists not hired by the current administration tend to agree with ???ski that the globe is warming, though they also speak of much local variation so tough to say what that means for our snowpack other than that the old timers can tell you just how far the various glaciers in the cascades have receded.<br><br>Autos are a reasonably big contributor, at 20 percent of US carbon dioxide emissions according to www.ecobridge.org/content/g_cse.htm , but certainly not the whole story. Get an energy efficient car, spend some more $$ on energy efficient appliances and home, and you can make up a little for heading to the mountains now and then. Or we could all move to the mountains and ruin the solitude for the few who can ski w/o driving...

... If you wish to make that argument look for data elsewhere.<br>

<br><br>Ya -- like, if there was global warming or something, you would see the glaciers disappearing. Drive on, dude!!

pretty sad when even skiers will bury their heads in the sand on this problem. Why should this surprise me?

<br><br>Ya -- like, if there was global warming or something, you would see the glaciers disappearing. Drive on, dude!!

<br>Wow, I hope you did not infer I was making any arguments against the existance of anthropogenic Climate Change. I was only suggesting one poor ealy season does not scientifically prove a worldwide trend. <br><br>Personally I do believe Climate Change will be my greatest obstacle in achieving a streak which rivals TOMSKIs. Though I do not think it is in anyway realistic or productive to suggest things like, "abolish the automobile". How can we get to the mountains if we do that?<br>

Ahh, yes. Typical. <br><br>

Everything's going to hell, but damned if I'm going to change MY lifestyle to do anything about it.

<br><br>Did voting for Kerry somehow make your SUV environmentally friendly?

OK, then. We're cool.<br><br>I don't think that ???ski meant to be offering this warm spell as a scientific proof, but rather suggests that it is an expected manifestation of climate change. If all the 33 degree rain we have received at Baker had been 32 degree snow, we would be in hog heaven right now.<br><br>How will we get to the snow without our personal gas guzzlers? Maybe the same way our grandchildren will after we have guzzled all that the Arabs are going to let us have. Maybe we solve that problem now instead of after this geologically temporary gas glut is kaput.<br><br>I do not know the solution; I suspect that it will involve the development of efficient mass transprortation to replace individual vehicles.

Everything's going to hell, but damned if I'm going to change MY lifestyle to do anything about it.

<br>Ah but I did do something about it, I voted for Kerry. I'd more than welcome aggressive legislation requiring auto makers to produce more fuel efficient SUVs. <br><br>

Did voting for Kerry somehow make your SUV environmentally friendly?

<br><br>I sure hope so <br><br>Actually I thought just placing the "Kerry/Edwards" sticker on my SUV instantly made it more environmentally friendly. <br><br>

Seems to me that the stable maritime snowpack we enjoy out here requires the warm temps and occassional rain on snow events like we experienced last week. <br><br>I prefer the cold smoke as much as anyone, but if that's all we got then we'd be Colorado or Utah, and have to deal with a much more unstable snowpack out here. <br><br>Plus we would not be skiing well into the summer months, so I suppose its a toss up.<br><br>FWIW: I do believe that greenhouse gases raise global temps, just not certain on the overall effects.

There have been years where even the snowy Mt. Baker Ski Hill haven't had snow. In the 50's and again in 77 or something. But my question is; why put ski areas at elevations such as 3000'-3500' in a place where the fluxuating snow levels give you a good enough base,(half the time) but make for horrible snow conditions on the lower half of the mtn. half the year, on a good year!! I guess people are satisfied with this though, as I have never heard anyone question it!!!!!!! Go up, thats where it snows! I wonder if, in the future, these ski "hills" we have will close due to global warming, just as many low elevation areas in Europe are doing at present. Signed: Rocket Scientist.

Because one of those ski areas is 20 min from my front door off of a major (and relatively well-maintained) highway and the season's pass cost me like $280. Buy me a pass at Crystal and I'll go there.

???ski,<br><br>Before selling your car - of course maybe you want to anyway - read this about weather, global warming and even skiing.<br>www.forskiers.com/articles/6.asp

The intersesting thing about global warming is that yes the earth is warming, but it warms and cools all by itself regardless of our wishes. There is no proven fact that man is causing it. Contributing maybe but even then there is no proof.

So unless you plan on walking to your favorite ski area, keep the car.

<br>www.forskiers.com/articles/6.asp

"Mt. Pinatubo, for example, the last time it erupted, spewed more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere than the entire history of man!"

 

<br><br>While NASA says:<br>earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NasaN...01/200104234686.html

"Shindell looked at volcanic activity from 1959 to 2000 and identified volcanically active and non-active years. The researchers concluded that because volcanic forcing is intermittent and decays rapidly, it seems unlikely to have contributed greatly to the long-term observed warming trend. Large volcanic eruptions such as Mount Pinatubo in 1991 inject aerosols into the atmosphere and have a global cooling effect during the years following an eruption. "<br><br><br>Anyway, the current weather doesn't prove anything either way. Or else 9 days ago, as I was getting face shots in low density snow at Stevens, I was seeing proof we were entering an ice age...<br>

I've got a weekday season pass for Crystal... so I'm a little bummed by this heat wave. Over time I've learned to work with the weather, respect the weather and wait for opportunities. <br><br>Several years ago I was on the Muir Snowfield on the last weekend of July. The wind was so strong that fog was jetstreaming over the rock ridge above Pebble Creek. Halfway up the snowfield I came to my senses and turned around. I had ice hitting me in the face at about 50 mph. I was thinking in terms of survival and this was late July! Well, I guess that's the lesson about the mountain making it's own weather.... But around here anything can happen any time of the year.<br><br>I think the main difference between Summer and Winter in the PNW is long rainy days and short rainy days.<br><br>Here is a link to a map of the Jetstream:<br> www.accuweather.com/adcbin/jet_maps_large?nav=home

This Jetstream along with the California high pressure area controls our PNW weather Summer and Winter. When the Jetstream is pointed right at us, we get the Pinapple Express (rain from Hawaii). In Winter, when it cuts back and forth giving us cold weather on the downstroke and warm weather on the upstroke, we get snow as the dividing line between colliding weather systems crosses over us. Right now it's curving around the North of us in combination with a high pressure buildup. If this high pressure doesn't go away then we are going to have some nice California weather around here... but no snow.

I'm not sure about Global Warming, but I do know that we used to see more snow around here and the glaciers are receding - and that 10,000 years ago, the spot where my house sits was under a chunk of ice a mile thick.

Things change.

Amongst a variety of factors, the presently low snowpack this year may likely be attributable (in part) to the current "El Nino" event.  El Nino years are historically notorious for bringing warmer than normal temperatures to the west coast of the U.S. (such as the "bad snow" year in 1976-'77, etc.).  NOAA monitors this fairly closely, and has developed generalized forecast models for it:<br><br>www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictio...color/churchill.html

The positive flip side (for skiing at least), is that the year following an El Nino event typically brings well above normal snowfall to the mountains here ("La Nina"; eg. the record snowfall year at Baker in 1998-'99).

--Chris

This conversation always amuses me every time I hear it. People, global warming is a fact, we humans are causing it. Is it causing our current poor snow year? That is far less certain. Chris wisely points out this can be more directly linked to El Nino; El Nino may have a tenuous link to global warming, that remains to be seen.<br><br>The atmosphere/ocean have natural variability. Every day is not the same as the last. There are seasonal variations (winter/summer), interannual variations (El Nino/La Nina), decadal variations and longer time variations still. Each one is a function of all the rest. If we do something like dump a bunch of greenhouse gases into the air, we well affect the longer time variations (decadal and beyond, aka climate). But the year to year stuff (El Nino) and seasonal stuff is dependent on this background. If we change the climate we change El Nino, and El Nino pushes our freezing levels up. How does climate affect El Nino? That's a hard question we don't have a good answer for yet. Is there a direct link between global warming and the tiny base at Alpental right now via El Nino or some other process? That's a very hard question to answer too.<br><br>Now I must return to my gargantuan pile of work. Good day.<br>

   

<br>Ah but I did do something about it, I voted for Kerry. I'd more than welcome aggressive legislation requiring auto makers to produce more fuel efficient SUVs. <br> <br>I sure hope so <br><br>Actually I thought just placing the "Kerry/Edwards" sticker on my SUV instantly made it more environmentally friendly. <br><br>

<br>I'll admit, Kerry got my vote.  <br>Donnelly, aka: matrixski, skier66, VpowerMaxski, ???ski and Ratboy. <br><br>

<br>Donnelly, formally known as matrixski, skier66, VpowerMaxski, and ???.

<br><br>So, um, is there a reason you keep switching identities?<br><br>Ever considered using your real name?<br><br>I'll admit it--pseudonyms are my pet peeve on line. Has been for ages...

Perhaps we're old farts in that respect, Lowell. Relics of the TV generation.<br><br>If folks are worried about global warming, please beware of online postings that generate more heat than light.<br> ;D<br>Sorry...

Well if it be I'll just use my regular name.  I'll be retiring the use of these other names, especially Ratboy.

Well if it be I'll just use my regular name.  I'll be retiring the use of these other names, especially Ratboy.

<br><br>Awesome! <br>Pleased to meet you, Donnelly.

<br><br>Awesome! <br>Pleased to meet you, Donnelly.

<br>Thank you. <br><br>And for all of you who ski Alpental and who know me as Ratboy, you now know my real name.  <br><br>btw:  I did sell my car.  I was the proud owner of a 1990 Toyota Terdcel, banged up on the side, leaked a quart of oil every 100 miles, no muffler but surely at 40+ miles to the gallon, someone was willing to give a whopping $30.  Although miniscule, leaking a quart of oil every 100 miles is not helping our envirenment.  I did my part.  It's not mine anymore!!!!  <br>

Yeah but just think of how much greenhouse gas pollution is avoided each and every day that diesel ski-lift generators don't run, and that people don't flock to the mountains in their 'auto'mobiles. In fact if we ourselves were truly auto-mobile, we would cease to felate the fossil fuel pipeline for unearned kilojoules. Some say humans are the dominant species because we are the smartest, I say it's because we burn the most energy. It's thermodynamics; we are nature's proudest entropy.

Have any of you scientists done the math to figure out how far you'd have to drive an average car to equate to one unearned run on Internationale (obviously you have to make some sort of assumption on how full the lift is - let's say half full as a rough average across a week)?

Jim, you bring up a point that I have thought about for a long time, which is that it is difficult for us to decide how to "spend" our energy wisely when we don't know how much energy each of our activities really costs. The dollar cost is obviously not a good guideline, given that some forms of energy are massively subsidized and the subsidization is largely hidden. An obvious example of this, of course, is the price of gasoline, which seems to largely fail to include 100s of military $billions we spend on protecting our access to oil. And oil is clearly not the only energy source with large hidden subsidies.<br><br>Even though I have had to fly recently due to my parent's situation, I typically try not to fly unless absolutely necessary, because my guess has been that one round-trip flight across the country debits to my "personal energy use account" more credit that I could accrue in an entire year by not driving to the mountains. In fact, I sometimes wonder if an individual's frequent flyer miles could provide a good indication of overall personal energy use.<br><br>The thing is, I just haven't been able to find any consolidated source of the statistics that would be needed to answer questions like these. Back when I was doing some teaching (over 10 years ago), I remember reading about some software which was designed to enable one to track their personal energy budget, but I didn't have a computer to run it at the time. Does anyone know if something like this exists now? Alternatively, maybe someone has links for sources of energy consumption statistics which could be used to do such an accounting manually?

Yes but jets run on Kerosene not aviation gas so once again the subject is more complicated then merely saying I sold my car, rode my bike, didn't fly today, etc and therefore I have done something good. In reality the amount of fossil fuel byproducts being put into the atmosphere everyday by eastern European countries far out strips what we produce in this country with our cars. I cringe to think how much pollutants are pumped into the air and ground water by a 40 mile per gallon oil burning econo car.<br><br>One way put a dent in fossil usage, is to quit buying the slick techno-gear we all buy. It's all plastic folks, and plastic is largely fossil fuel based. But it's much easier to blame our dependence on something else. Like government policy. But we all want our cake and eat it too. The government that supplies our oil dependency is just the tool of our desires. You want that new coat, computer, ride to the ski mountain? Well their gonna give it to you.<br><br>Most ski areas today run on electricity which is largely hydroelectric in the NW at least and therefore are nonpolluting. But the dams the produce the power tax the environment in other ways. Namely fish. Which brings up another point, lately the so called environmentalists have extrolled the idea that to buy wild fish is good and farmed fish bad. Unfortunately this ignores the added pressure that already weak fish stocks must undergo to supply this ever increasing demand. Farming fish was never a bad idea. It just needs better a method then is currently being used.<br><br>I don't want to imply that what I see in this thread are bad ideas, but it would be nice if the world was so simple. It would really be nice if we just could quit doing something and all would be well. Instead the answer and the world at large is far more complex.<br>