Oregon Climatologists Forecast Wet/Cold Winter

3 Climatologists associated with Oregon Climate Services have issued promising Winter forecasts.<br><br>From the first forecast, "The most compelling information we've noted is, in years where we have experienced an historically wet August (as we have this year), it was followed (90% of the time, or 18 out of 20 historically wet Augusts) by above normal precipitation for the remainder of the winter. In a few cases, we have seen extremely high rainfall amounts for the remainder of the winter. These years are also more likely than not to see at least one major snow event, possibly more. Some locations in Alaska have seen records warmth early this summer. If that pattern remains prevalent through the winter months, there is a greater than normal probability of abnormally cold air draining down from the arctic north."<br>www.ocs.oregonstate.edu/wint04/steve_forecast.html


The official Oregon State Climatologist issued this, "All in all, we expect generally below-average temperatures during the first half of the season (Oct-Dec), with normal or somewhat above-average precipitation statewide. The second half of the year (Jan-Mar) should see above-average temperatures statewide and average or above-average precipitation (with western Oregon more likely to be above average). And watch for one or more extreme events this winter, particularly wind storms and rain storms.The best chance for extreme cold (and snow) should occur in December."
www.ocs.oregonstate.edu/wint04/04_05_forecast.html


And a summary of the third person's forecast who was initially just studying the probability of an extreme windstorm in the Willamete Valley:
"1)    Snow and frigid temperatures seem a very real possibility this winter. December is the favored month for a potentially significant arctic outbreak, though it could be as late as February.

2)    November and March may be particularly stormy.

3)    October could be somewhat cool and damp.

4)    A significant windstorm may occur--chances are deemed better than even."
www.ocs.oregonstate.edu/wint04/wolf_forecast.html


In addition to all of this the "Farmers' Almanac" predicts a "Wild Winter" see:
news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/200...c/farmers__almanac_8

In an attempt to thwart the bitterness from the RNC I'm cross-posting this message on TTips and CC. I do realize a lot of folks read all 3 boards.

I like good news!

On a moderating note:<br><br>To me it seems to be shaping up more like 01/02.<br><br>We had a ridiculously dry end of ski season and summer.<br>Then a couple of low pressure systems come through for the big tease.  Then nothing until mid December.<br><br>I know you are talking about Oregon.  It seems that in 01/02 it was actually Oregon that got the big systems. <br>Then Mission was a benefactor of the wrap around moisture.  We skied better snow than most that year.<br><br>Edited to add that I think I may have my years mixed up.<br>I'm talking about the year that was fairly barren of snow especially at the beginning. Might have been 00/01.

Bump.

Well, they're right. So far it's been cold, now wet. Cold/wet winter, all right.

ha ha ha, too funny.