The great winter that wasn't?

After the record-threatening start and low snow levels, how are y'all feeling about this season so far?<br><br>Maybe its creeping nostalgia, but I'm beginning to think that I had just about as many good powder days last season as this.<br><br>Do you think the weather can do a bit of a turn-around and give us a little January in April this year? The best late-season powder day I've ever seen was May 11th 1998 -- a 2.5 foot dump at Mt. Baldy (in LA!) ...<br><br>

might be time for a mid-season pray for snow party....

Personally I think this is a great season! ;D I had more powder days in December than all of last season. My Crystal ski pass was paid off well before Chrisrtmas! Since my pass purchase had been justified I have spent as much time out of the area as in. Futhermore, even the weekends have been more than cooperative on the powder meter. As the days get longer more people are mowing, weeding and participating in fair weather activities in the city. Generally the hills are going to get quieter. Although if you are reading this thread-You will not be weeding and mowing. You will be planning where your next sliding adventure will take place. <br>I guess I can't predict how the Spring snow will be, but history around here usually has Power days in March, April and even May if you keep an eye on the weather. For powder we must be ready slide on a whim and be prepared for sunbaked snow when the clouds part during our trips. I have noticed more snow melt at my house (2000 ft) than usual at this time of year, but the waves of Spring storms have yet to arrive in the higher hills. <br>If I could predict the Spring powder days I would work the tables in Vegas during the Summer and have a routine job and slide all Winter. <br>Have fun out there!

Way more powder this winter than last: deeper and more stable. Higher snow levels though (I drove to 2400 feet before hitting intermittent snow on the north-facing Coal Pass Road last weekend), so scant snowpack below about 3500 feet, pretty normal above 5000 feet. Over 500 inches to date at the Mt. Baker Ski Area is about normal, too. <br><br>That's my take on things. It's still early.<br><br>Enjoy,<br><br>Mark

I'm REALLY looking forward to June and July. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Well, I've been tracking snowfall and snowdepths throughout the entire Cascade Range this winter, see my Cascade Snowfall and Snowdepth page for a detailed twice-a-month summary. Basically, this season looks like the best one overall throughout the Cascades since the record year of 1998-99, but the northern end of the range has been struggling the past 2 months with below-normal snowfall. Current snowdepths from northern CA to southern WA are well above-normal, but in northern WA and southwest BC they are normal to below-normal. For example, as of today Swift Creek SNOTEL at 3800 ft on Mt St Helens has a greater snowdepth than Mt Baker Ski Area -- shocking!<br><br>By the way, there never was a "record-threatening start" this year, that was just media hype and BS. This season's start (after mid-November) was quite good, but it was not a great start like 1996 or especially 1994. And I'm mystified by Mark's comment about higher snow levels this year. The snow levels have consistently been MUCH lower this year than last, and snowdepths right now at low-elevation sites (e.g. Snoqualmie Pass) are double or even triple last year's depths for this date. You must be thinking of 2002, which had lots of good powder at low snow levels. And I agree with Paul, the spring and summer should be outrageous this year, especially from Rainier all the way south to Shasta and Lassen. As for "January in April", the storm track which has pounded northern CA with 9-10 feet of snow the past 2 weeks will eventually be shifting northward as the spring progresses. The northern end of the range still has 2 full months to rack up some big late-season snowfalls and finish the season with above-normal snowdepths, too.<br><br>Amar Andalkar<br> www.skimountaineer.com <br><br>

Amar - it looks like your letting facts get in the way of a good whine

Amar, the snow stats on your webpage are fascinating, especially the snowdepth comparisons. Where did you get stats on remote sites like Jasper Pass, Easy Pass, etc...? Who measures that, there aren't even snotel sites there.

Don't question the guy that has the maps!

Mmmm. Am I confusing my own, limited observations with "truth" again? You'd think I'd learn.<br><br>For whatever it's worth, there is less snow down low in the North Fork Nooksack valley than there has been most winters during the 8 years I've lived here. However, I should know better than to generalize based on that fact...particularly considering all the silent listeners, waiting to pounce. <br><br>Enjoy,<br><br>Mark

Actually I appreciate the hard data, but things did seem like they were tending to look a lot like spring yesterday on the West side and near the crest. Except for the cold temps which tended to refreeze the melted snow that had been exposed to the near 40 degree temps from the day before.<br><br>I think that this year seems unique and it may be reflected in the central to north cascades only. But in the twelve years that I have lived here I have yet to notice a year where the big avalanche cones along the west approach to Stevens have failed to develop. Noone even along the road! They were there even last year. Also, the amount of snow that has slid on all the chutes seems less.<br><br>This of course does not relate to the snow depths. Also, it seems that the weather pattern seems to be more variable, with multiple long periods (weeks) of relative snow drought. Usually the storm droughts occur once or twice a season with the norm of having fairly consistent wet systems arriving one after the other (each with a highly variable ability to dump snow). The usual low level pattern here is that the storms are slow to leave with the next one early to arrive, resulting in our normal pattern of weeks on end of cloudy drizzly and rainy weather. Typically any local forcaster's bright outlook for a "potential" for a nice day are dashed by that pattern.<br><br>Lately, the forecasters' routine reponse to such a pattern means that they are failing often this season. Today being the perfect example. Bright and sunny on a day with an expected storm. Looking at the satellite and wow the storm just evaporated! All this with a low pressure system that had a lower pressure than models predicted and was moving smack at us.<br><br>Except for the occurance of a few very rich storms early and mid season, this year seems to lack the more regular deposits of moderate snow falls with the occasional big dump and even the heavy warm rains that tend to settle (through active avalanche cycles) and melt. Seems the jet stream has been splitting more often and when present over the area, just doesn't seem to have the normal push that generates the significant orographic snowfalls.<br><br><br><br>

I think Mark was talking about low-elevation west-side sites - not places like Snoqualmie Pass that receive cold east side air.<br><br>But for example where I was yesterday at a west-side site,  there wasn't any snow until 2000ft elevation.  At 3000ft elevation, there was maybe a foot and a half in the open, and none in the woods. This was on a north-facing slope. South-facing slopes were obviously worse off.   Certainly that's way below normal?  I have a lot of ideas for tours that have low elevation starts, and I'm finding it hard to make it happen.<br><br>It's not quite as bad as it was last year *before* the storms picked up steam in late Feb.  But certainly worse than the "bad snow year" everyone was complaining about in 2000-2001.<br><br>Just my opinion....

Mark, I didn't mean to lurk and then "pounce" on you, sorry about that. I guess it all depends where you go and look, the North Cascades are indeed suffering for snow at low elevations (people are driving 18 miles up Cascade River Rd to 2000 ft in February???), while the normally much-warmer South Cascades are unusually flush with snow down low (there's solid snowcover at 1500 ft near St Helens). I think much of this low elevation disparity dates to the big snows that reached down to sea level in southern WA and northern OR during early January, while northern WA largely missed out. And it has definitely been unusually dry in the North Cascades the past 3 months, even most high-elevation sites in the interior like Rainy, Washington, and Harts Passes are way below-normal in snowpack, and only Mt Baker Ski Area seems close to normal depth.<br><br>Phil, regarding snowdepth data at sites like Jasper Pass: the NRCS has run a program of monthly manual snow course measurements since the 1930s, in addition to their more recent SNOTEL sites since the late 1970s. The archived data can be found on their website, NRCS Snow Courses . Unfortunately, regular data is still acquired for only a few of these snow courses, due to budget cutbacks and also being supplanted by nearby automated SNOTEL sites. It's kind of a shame that they would just stop taking data at the highest-snowdepth sites in North America. <br>

Great thread guys! Amar, I like what you have to say about the jet stream working its way north again, I wouldn't bet against it. <br><br>As for Cascade River Road, Jason and I were able to drive past mile 20 early last April (2003). I'd be curious to hear exactly how low impassable snowcover was in spring 2002. (Phil, did you make this observation at some point?) I'll commit to making it a personal mission to provide a few observations about winter and spring snow levels along Cascade River Road for the next few years, just for the sake of data.

In early February 2002, Cascade River Road was plowed to the 6.5 mile mark, where there was 2 feet of snow (elevation 1200ft)? I don't know how normal that is, or how long that lasted, but that was a "good snow year". Here we are complaining about the snowpack this year, but in mid-January, there was at least a foot and half of snow in Index (600ft). But that didn't last long.<br><br>I was up there (Cascade river) in Jan 2001 I think, and I could drive at least to the Eldo lot, but that was exceptionally low snow-cover then (there was only around a foot or two at the cascade pass TH @ 3600ft)<br><br>It would be interesting to have a record of how far it is drivable in each month... seems like the low elevation snowpack is so variable on the west side that it makes it hard to plan trips.<br><br>

regarding snowdepth data at sites like Jasper Pass: the NRCS has run a program of monthly manual snow course measurements since the 1930s,

<br><br>Thanks for the link. It doesn't give a lot of details, but it appears that these measurements were done in person... on helicopter, or on foot?? For some reason, I just have a hard time believing that it was someone's job to bushwhack up to Jasper Pass in mid-winter (I'd be willing to do it though, if good snowpack made upper Goodell Creek easy travel ). They must have choppered in, right? Looks like the data is pretty discontinuous, so the measurements must have been conditions dependent somehow.<br><br>

We walked to 4000 ft without any snow on Snowking last February (Feb 8th or so, 2003; there is a TR posted on this site). Remember last winter started very, very slow without any snow at all until mid-Dec, then the entire month of January was very warm, 5 degrees above normal. Most of our snow last winter came after mid-Feb. This winter had an extremely prolonged cold streak around Christmas and New Year's with very low snow levels. Remember our "historical" Seattle snow event? Some friends reported a foot or more snow on the Cascade River road at the Sibley Creek turnoff in late Dec.<br><br>There is a long history of manual "snow course" surveys to chart snowdepth. Skiers or snow shoers would walk along a designated course and take snowdepth measurements at designated spots, then average them. Most of the snow courses have stopped and been replaced with automated measurements. There is a researcher at UW, Philip Mote, who took this historical data and analyzed it, looking for long term trends.

Phil, many of the remote snow courses have names such as "Jasper Pass AM" or "Easy Pass AM", where AM stands for Aerial Marker. These courses were designed to be read from low-flying aircraft, supplemented by occasional manual ground measurements. There is some good info available about this on the NRCS website, but it's not always easy to find. This link is a good starting point, and this link has a nice description of manual and aerial surveys. Also check out the WA 2004 Snow Survey Schedule , which shows that Jasper Pass is supposed to read from the air on the 1st of Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, and May, supplemented with manual surveys on Feb 1 and Apr 1. But many of the courses listed on the schedule (including Jasper Pass) have not actually been measured for several years, so it appears that the schedule is overly optimistic and bears little connection to reality.<br>

Thanks for all the replies and the excellent info -- I'm now counting on the storm track sliding North and dumping snow soon, hopefully in the Kootenays in the 3rd week of March.<br><br>I think what I was trying to express about the past couple of months is what Bigsnow said so clearly in his post above.<br><br>It just kinda feels to me like the season has turned pretty strongly to spring in the past 3 weeks, and the really good snow dumps are already behind us this year.<br><br>I'm sooooo hoping to be completely wrong!<br>

One can think of the jet stream's position as being dictated by something called thermal wind balance. Essentially, north-south gradients in temperature are translated into vertical gradients in wind speed, or shear. The strong winds in the upper atmosphere are what we commonly call the jet stream. Imagine two wrestling giants - the cold, polar air and the warm tropical air. Heave, ho, they push against each other, battling back and forth, always trying to gain a little ground from the other. The battle line is marked by the jet stream.<br><br>As fall transitions into winter, the low sun and precious few daylight hours allow the polar giant to gain strength. He gradually creeps southward, displacing the jet stream and the most vigorous storms south into California. As spring approaches, the sun begins to climb higher and gives the warmer, tropical air a boost. He pushes back and by mid-summer banishes the polar giant to the north, ushering in consecutive weeks of cloudless skys.<br><br>The last few weeks have seen storm after storm drive south into California, but it appears as though we will soon start the transition back to summer weather. It looks like the jet stream will start to move north again by the middle of the week and our familiar routine of storms every other day with ample, deep fresh powder will return. California, well, they'll live up to their nickname, the "Golden State."

Very eloquent, Matt.<br><br>This is a link to one of my favorite weather forecast tools-<br><br>squall.sfsu.edu/gif/jetstream_pac_loop.gif

-a three day loop of the jet stream for the Eastern Pacific. I believe this would be a pretty fair visual representation of the phenomenon you so vividly portray.

Thanks for the link Michael. UW Atmospheric Sciences has a nice weather page set up with links to all sorts of model output, UW weather loops Towards the bottom of the page is a link to loops of 500 mb Heights from the 7 previous days plus the next 6 days of forecasts. 500 mb is about half way up in the atmosphere. 300 mb (in the link you gave, and closer to the top of the atmosphere) is probably better for the jet stream specifically, but 500 mb is just fine. At these levels the winds follow the pressure contours, so you can think of the tightly packed lines as the jet stream.<br><br>One day I got curious about animating an entire year's worth of weather. I had access to archived 500 mb height maps so I pieced them together into a several minute movie. Watching an entire year you can really see the gradual transitions as the seasons change, quite interesting.

Here's another link for tracking snowpack and snow water equivalent at all SNOTEL sites in WA state.<br><br>The southern half of the state seems to be above normal, while the northern half is below normal at most sites.<br><br>www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/snow/snow.cgi

Thanks, everyone, for all of the links. The amount of weather/snow data on the web is so vast that even though I do a fair amount of looking I hadn't come across many of these. The SNOTEL link Juan provided is great. I discovered that you can browse the current data by simply mousing-over the sites on the map, and then read the data out of the URL which appears at the bottom of the browser window (IE, anyway), without having to load each site's page.<br><br>I'd have to say that I have also had the impression that the low elevation snowpack west of the Crest seems to be quite low. With the cold and snowy early winter, I have been surprised to see so little snowpack these past few weeks. Oh well, maybe the spring skiing access season will start early this year.

Great postings! I have to add that this has seemed to be a strange winter. I have not experienced any shortage of powder days this winter, but for the exception of the cold spell around Christmas I'd have to say this winter has presented unusally warm temps, generally high snow levels, and ample powder???? Go figure. Here are a few observations - the creeks up at snoqualmie pass have not filled in this year. In most years they are filled in by mid February. Source lake is still open. I have been spotting some great high-elevation ice falls to climb that I have not seen in past years which seems to indicate generally warmer temperatures at higher elevation and more freeze thaw cycles up high. While doing the Mt Thompson circumnavagation two weekends ago we were befuddled by a complete lack of snow in the upper Burnt Boot Creek basin at 3000'. Only the slide paths and open shaded areas next to the creek had snow. Anything forested or exposed to the sun had zero snow....and that was at 3000'. The Middle Fork valley does not get the easterly flow that the passes get so the snow line was a lot higher than we expected. She is a weird one this Winter.