Heliotrope Ridge 10/5/08-Priming the Pump?
10/15/08
WA Cascades West Slopes North (Mt Baker)
5431
10
12 months ago I visited Heliotrope to view the first snow. 2 or 3 weeks later, mofo's were filing TR's of knee deep pow and alpine starts in the same locale. The only reason this is important is pattern recognition......will my visit today, to view the first, but not actionable (rideable) snow, yield the same results? Only time will tell. Snowing at 6K on up, 1/2 inch on ground. Due to time constraints on the part of my partner we were not as aggressive as we might have been in exploring the upper portions of heliotrope, but couldn't see anything that appeared rideable. Does correlation imply causation? Only a few weeks will tell, but hey, I just wanted to let folks know its snowing. So there ya go.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
447 PM PDT SUN OCT 5 2008
WAZ001-503>519-061400-
SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-
EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-EVERETT AND VICINITY-
SEATTLE/BREMERTON AREA-TACOMA AREA-ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-
HOOD CANAL AREA-LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA-OLYMPICS-
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-
NORTH COAST-CENTRAL COAST-WEST SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES AND PASSES-
WEST SLOPES CENTRAL CASCADES AND PASSES-
447 PM PDT SUN OCT 5 2008
...A STRONG PACIFIC STORM COULD BRING THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
OF THE SEASON TO THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES ON TUESDAY..
...ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT..
A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A COLDER AIR MASS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE SNOW LEVEL IS
EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR 4000 FEET AND TO AROUND 3500 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLUMMETING SNOW LEVELS COMBINED WITH
STRONG...MOIST WESTERLY FLOW COULD RESULT IN 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
ABOVE 3500 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM STEVENS PASS NORTHWARD.
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CENTRAL CASCADES AND OLYMPICS.
BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AND WITH THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS
TIME...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON THE COAST AND
FROM EVERETT NORTHWARD...WHERE THERE COULD BE GUSTS IN THE 45 TO
50 MPH RANGE. THE SITUATION APPEARED SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO WHAT
OCCURRED ON SATURDAY. THUS RESIDENTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF POWER OUTAGES MONDAY NIGHT.
STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN SEATTLE ON THIS UPCOMING EVENT.
$$
WEATHER.GOV
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
447 PM PDT SUN OCT 5 2008
WAZ001-503>519-061400-
SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-
EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-EVERETT AND VICINITY-
SEATTLE/BREMERTON AREA-TACOMA AREA-ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-
HOOD CANAL AREA-LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA-OLYMPICS-
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-
NORTH COAST-CENTRAL COAST-WEST SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES AND PASSES-
WEST SLOPES CENTRAL CASCADES AND PASSES-
447 PM PDT SUN OCT 5 2008
...A STRONG PACIFIC STORM COULD BRING THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
OF THE SEASON TO THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES ON TUESDAY..
...ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT..
A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A COLDER AIR MASS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE SNOW LEVEL IS
EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR 4000 FEET AND TO AROUND 3500 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLUMMETING SNOW LEVELS COMBINED WITH
STRONG...MOIST WESTERLY FLOW COULD RESULT IN 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
ABOVE 3500 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM STEVENS PASS NORTHWARD.
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CENTRAL CASCADES AND OLYMPICS.
BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AND WITH THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS
TIME...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON THE COAST AND
FROM EVERETT NORTHWARD...WHERE THERE COULD BE GUSTS IN THE 45 TO
50 MPH RANGE. THE SITUATION APPEARED SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO WHAT
OCCURRED ON SATURDAY. THUS RESIDENTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF POWER OUTAGES MONDAY NIGHT.
STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN SEATTLE ON THIS UPCOMING EVENT.
$$
WEATHER.GOV
Nice!!
Funny, but I had identical plans!! Grab the board and dog and see what I get....thought the forecast looked promising, and was tempted to hit the same spot. Bailed on my plans at the last minute an opted to hike closer to home instead. There was a couple inches of fresh on the ground near lake Valhalla, and lots of cool dusted mt views.
Thank you much for the report. I was extremely curious what the conditions where like so I can fine tune my own forecasting.
Funny, but I had identical plans!! Grab the board and dog and see what I get....thought the forecast looked promising, and was tempted to hit the same spot. Bailed on my plans at the last minute an opted to hike closer to home instead. There was a couple inches of fresh on the ground near lake Valhalla, and lots of cool dusted mt views.
Thank you much for the report. I was extremely curious what the conditions where like so I can fine tune my own forecasting.
author=Randy Beaver link=topic=10986.msg45033#msg45033 date=1223264151">
2 or 3 weeks later, mofo's were filing TR's of knee deep pow and alpine starts in the same locale
you mean this? ;D ;D ;D hopefully this seasons's first bluebird powder day isn't far off.
That's the one! I knew we were close, didn't realize it was 365 days later......you've gained a sort of local infamy, the sales guy in SnoCon weas talking about your TR on Saturday, saying folks had fwded it to him last year. It's a coming!
Freezing level to 3500' with possibilities of 8" accumulation...hehehe...yeah!
The writing on the tree in the photo says it was 377 years old and started growing in 1631.
The Wikipedia says the construction of the Taj Mahal in India started that year!
For more 1631 facts see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1631
The Wikipedia says the construction of the Taj Mahal in India started that year!
For more 1631 facts see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1631
author=Randy Beaver link=topic=10986.msg45033#msg45033 date=1223264151]
......will my visit today, to view the first, but not actionable (rideable) snow, yield the same results? ... Does correlation imply causation?
You can't draw any conclusions about causation from a sample size of one, but repeated sampling with continued strong correlation could indeed imply causation. Of course to be publishable you'd have to at least come up with a plausible theoretical basis for a mechanism to link your actions to the results... The question now is, are you willing to commit to repeat sampling on an annual basis? (or do you have a grad student or other slave labor to do the work?).
Thanks for your work so far in advancing the boundaries of science. I eagerly await your results.
Plausible theory: Ullr hates you.
I leave the proof as an exercise to the reader.
I leave the proof as an exercise to the reader.
Myself and other members of the academy have discussed, and are int he process of implementing, repeated samplings to confirm the initial thesis.
RE Ullr: He's tried to kill me a few times, but overall treats me to well to hate me.
RE Ullr: He's tried to kill me a few times, but overall treats me to well to hate me.
Nice video, watching it makes my chest throb! This weekend could be good...
author=Pete A link=topic=10986.msg45047#msg45047 date=1223308894">
you mean this? ;D ;D ;D hopefully this seasons's first bluebird powder day isn't far off.
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