Snowpack model

Thought some of you might be interested in this little project - a snowpack model that uses Snotel data. Sure, it's rather crude.<br><br>A description and daily graphs for Sasse Ridge and Jolly Mtn. (and a few for the Swauk Pass area) are here:<br><br>web3.foxinternet.net/lrobinson/Sassehome.htm

Larry

Larry,<br><br>This is a great project and looks to be well done!<br><br>I had a very similar idea with a slightly different spin a few months ago but got side tracked by other projects and never pursued it. The idea was to use the NWAC telemetry and Snotel data to predict layers in the snowpack across elevation and aspect as you've done, then through a crude formula predict the current stability (low, moderate, considerable, ect..) Then use a high resolution weather forecast model like the MM5 to force the snowpack model and predict how the avalanche danger would change over the next few days. I dunno know if this is practical, if the MM5 has enough skill to make it feasible, or what it produces that someone at NWAC doesn't already do well, but it might be something interesting to think about while breaking trail.<br><br>Matt

Larry, I just noticed your post. I'm getting used to reading the original graph and can see how valuable it is in visualizing the snowfall profile from the valley floor on up. The new graphs are really good - with so much data represented in your model it helps me to have various ways of looking at it. You have put a lot of time into this project and it shows! It will be very interesting to hear what you find as far as the correlation between the model and what you find in the field - please keep us updated.

FYI, the French and Swiss avalanche forecasting folks have been doing this for years, and some of their early models, which are fairly complicated but not really that bad, were published by Eric Brun and assorted other co-authors in 1988 and 1992, in the Journal of Glaciology. There are also descriptions of the model, which is called CROCUS, in some of the International Snow Science Workshop volumes from the early '90's. I have copies of the papers someplace, but can't remember the exact references. You should check out these papers; would probably find them interesting. The UW library has J. Glaciology on the shelves.

Found them. Here are the references:<br><br>Brun, E., P. David, M. Sudul, and G. Brunot , A numerical model to simulate snowcover stratigraphy for operational avalanche forecasting, J. Glaciol. ,38 , 13?22, 1992 <br><br>Brun E., Martin E., Simon V., Gendre C., Coleou C. (1989): "An energy and mass model of snow cover suitable for operational avalanche forecasting", J. of Glaciol., 35 , 121, 333-342.