5/17/08 granite mountain, avalanche hullabaloo

This January (or was it February?) when avalanche danger was "four times more than extreme" according to the authorities, we had the best powder day of the season. Though we were conservative, conditions were way more stable than everyone said.

A forecast is just that. Wind in places helped, but there was considerable wet sluffs out there. I'm certain many slopes went (sent a few big ones down myself) and just because you were comfortable where you were at, a broad based forecast is just a warning in general to keep your eye out. For me, on rainier, it was taking the temperatures into account and weighing the risks all the way to the summit. I felt like the warning was appropriate. We all kept our eyes open, maybe more than we otherwise would've.

BTW, someone was taken down in a sluff on Mout Hood this weekend by the Pearly Gates.   

Sounds like you checked things out on your own and had a good time.  That's awesome.

Humbly, I don't really think that you can say that the avy forecast was overblown based on the fact that you skied Granite and it was good.  The slopes you skied are wind and sun hammered all winter (and usually crappy skiing, imo, but sounds like you hit it perfectly).  

I don't recall seeing the forecast state that being on the snow is FOR SURE going to kill you.  It's just a forecast and a resource that we can use along with our own judgement, assuming that we are willing to take personal responsibility for our actions.  

author=p0875 link=topic=10126.msg40641#msg40641 date=1211221111]I'd like to have fiends to ski with who don't think I'm a daredevil with a deathwish.

Sounds like you need better friends  ;) ;) ;).

Thanks for the trip report. 

I think the forecast was perfect - the forecasters likely stared at all of their weather and snowpack data and concluded that it was possible that things could go big. John Morrow's photos suggest that they did - big, fast, and far. When statistics are low, fluctuations matter a lot. Thank you, NWAC forecasters (and their financial supporters!).

Only you can make your own decisions about a slope. It's ok if folks offer friendly advice about a slope/conditions - advice often contains new information to add to your own assessment of things. It's not ok if they try to stop you.

author=prestonf link=topic=10126.msg40651#msg40651 date=1211224483]

Humbly, I don't really think that you can say that the avy forecast was overblown based on the fact that you skied Granite and it was good.  The slopes you skied are wind and sun hammered all winter (and usually crappy skiing, imo, but sounds like you hit it perfectly). 

This face has slid about a million times this year and given the low elevation this weekend was not the first significant warm-up of the season.

I'm with Jason on this. The forcast kept our eyes open and kept us from some of our wishful objectives. We skipped the long run down the southfacing backside of  castle Saddle. Others had good luck on consolidated snow at ski areas. In the end you take the forcast and make the judgement given what you see with your own eyes and training. I for one wasn't for any creek crossings with what I was seeing .

author=p0875 link=topic=10126.msg40641#msg40641 date=1211221111] 
the warnings probably did save a life or two this weekend

If that is all it saved, then IMHO it was worth it, that is of course in theory that it did save a life. Cheers to NWAC and maybe our legislators know that it is saving lives when the budget hat is passed around the lobby.

Personally, I felt that the warnings were merited, I have seen a lot of large slides in the spring on big meltdowns. Not just the wet sluffs that turn big, but 1/4 mile slab fractures, with at least a 3 foot hangfire just below ridge lines. Areas that I would have skied and considered relatively harmless ski bowls. 

Also, back in the mid 80's a friend told me a story about Granite in the Spring that remains in my mind forever. He had hiked to the top of Granite for a ski down the West bowl that you see from the highway. It was a very warm day, with consolidated snow on the approach, when he got to the summit he had taken in some rays and lunch at the top. Meanwhile another group had set out to ski the same slope and they took off before he was ready to go. My friend stood at the top and watched as the skiers took off and as soon as they descended the whole slope broke off in a slab and killed one of the skiers.

I agree that the snow ended up feeling safer that I expected and most of the cornices had receded back better than expected. But I aim to have fun, but not let my avalanche guard down for a moment. Everyones comfort level for risk varies, I like to have fun so I ski stuff where I know the odds are lower for avy's on high risk days. I feel that the focus of the last weekends avy forecast was pointed to the deep stuff as previously mentioned in this tread.  Knowing the terrain, where the underlain smooth rock slabs are and guessing where the old weak layer might or might not be in previously uncontrolled terrain. I have not dug test pits in the late spring because most of the snow is usually isothermal. But the cooler weather this season does not give me reason to believe that the snowpack was isothermal based on some short warm spells and lower river runoff. When the rivers rise significantly I can assume that the snowpack has gone isothermal and most weak layers have had water percolation and may have rounded.

The only thing that took me was that NWAC called for HIGH avalanche danger below 7000ft.
It seemed that there would have been a higher risk above 7000ft and high from 7000 to 4000 and moderate/low below because there is minimal snow.

Good job NWAC for keeping us on our toes. We all make our own decisions and I hardly thought that the warnings were political scare tactics.

Joe

author=Joedabaker link=topic=10126.msg40677#msg40677 date=1211296373]
Good job NWAC for keeping us on our toes. We all make our own decisions and I hardly thought that the warnings were political scare tactics.

True that.  After a scary 2' slide on the 10th at Corral Pass, we had our share of shake-ups for the season.  I decided that instead of an ambitious volcano trip last weekend, I instead would take in the Clean Water Classic in Westport.  The waves were good and it got to 88 on the coast!  Nabbed some great rides and felt good about the decision.  I second Joe in saying we all make our own decisions, but based on NWAC's reputation, I wasn't going to take their warning lightly.  Thanks for the great job NWAC!

Unless you are operating with the same or greater knowledge of the NWAC forecasters, I think it is unfounded to make any claims that NWAC was out of line in their predictions for the weekend. HWY 20 was closed due to slides across the road, and I have read multiple trip reports discussing sluffs, slides, and various other mishaps. Seems like they got it spot on. Sure, there werent entire snowpack slides releasing at ground level, but there was certainly slide activity this last weekend. It is important to remember the NWAC forecast is just that, a forecast. A prediction. They should be applauded for their accuracy, and if you are in the business of providing a service that predicts avalanches I would think being on the safe side is much more appropriate. No one is telling you you cant go out, they are just telling you whether or not they believe the conditions will be safe. It is your choice whether or not you heed their prediction.

author=Joedabaker link=topic=10126.msg40677#msg40677 date=1211296373">
Personally, I felt that the warnings were merited, I have seen a lot of large slides in the spring on big meltdowns. Not just the wet sluffs that turn big, but 1/4 mile slab fractures, with at least a 3 foot hangfire just below ridge lines. Areas that I would have skied and considered relatively harmless ski bowls.

If I may go so far as to quote myself-
Cross thread link Holy Smokes
Scroll down on this link and look at the pictures of the ski runs at Blackcomb.
A well compacted ski run still slid.
Can't say as that that makes me feel easy.

Yup. Seeing shots of extremely well patrolled, well compacted huge faces ripping to the December crust.... NWAC knows what they are talking about, IMHO.

I didn't think the original poster's comments were meant to disparage the NWAC or their forecast, just their couch potato buddies who told them they were crazy to ski.  Glad someone got out.

author=natefred link=topic=10126.msg40761#msg40761 date=1211498593">
I didn't think the original poster's comments were meant to disparage the NWAC or their forecast, just their couch potato buddies who told them they were crazy to ski.  Glad someone got out.

"the avalanche warnings were a little overblown"

"when people who haven't been on the snow for months start hypothesizing that the snow FOR SURE is going to kill you, was something I'm a little put off about."

"the warnings should be out there ... but lets keep it real"

It seems clear that the original poster WAS disparaging the NWAC forecast. That's his or her right. But photos from Whistler/Blackcomb and the North Cascades highway confirm that the hazard was real. It just depended on time and location, as usual.

author=p0875 link=topic=10126.msg40641#msg40641 date=1211221111]
Certainly the warnings should be out there letting people know to pay special attention, but lets keep it real.

After the slides I've seen this season alone, and the pics posted (thanks Lowell) I think that kept it real enough and in perspective. 

" But when people who haven't been on the snow for months start hypothesizing that the snow FOR SURE is going to kill you, was something I'm a little put off about.  Certainly the warnings should be out there letting people know to pay special attention, but lets keep it real."

A bit of a silly topic. Avalanche forecasts in the HIGH range mean that there should be both natural avalanches and if people expose themselves, human triggered as well - and there were - as forecast.

This set up as the worst spring cycle since May 2002 (massive slides in many locations that cycle) and not surprisingly that is how it turned out this time. There were of course, not avalanches in all locations - but that isn't what the forecast of HIGH means anyway.