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Hot Air => Weak Layers: decision making in avalanche terrain => Topic started by: Samuraijr on 03/14/14, 01:23 PM



Title: Avy in Great Scott Bowl?
Post by: Samuraijr on 03/14/14, 01:23 PM
I haven't seen it reported here, but given all the excitement over at Crystal, I thought I'd point out that according to Facebook and Martin Volken, part of Great Scott Bowl below the Tooth slid sometime this week.  Nice crown, things are going deep.  : https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=10152671637754377&id=101219359376&stream_ref=10

I'd like to know specifically what day it slid, does anyone know?

JR


Title: Re: Avy in Great Scott Bowl?
Post by: NickD on 03/14/14, 06:36 PM
I was there Tuesday and it looked to be about 36 to 48 hours old judging by the amount of snow on top of the debris. It is on a southeast aspect and the crown likely began in a gully at approximately 4600 feet.  Not a very steep slope either. Maybe sun heating rocks with these rotten layers soaked by rain? Quite sobering and chose mellow stuff the rest of the day.


Title: Re: Avy in Great Scott Bowl?
Post by: Lowell_Skoog on 03/14/14, 09:02 PM
Thanks for the post. (I don't use Facebook.)

From the pictures and captions, that appears to be the slope right below the east face of The Tooth. Correct?

Gee, if they'd just waited a day before bombing it.... oh wait, there was no bomb.   :-[



Title: Re: Avy in Great Scott Bowl?
Post by: Griff on 03/15/14, 10:11 AM
Wow, another big slide. This shit is scary. Don't know that I am going to head out until it all comes down first.


Title: Re: Avy in Great Scott Bowl?
Post by: JCK on 03/16/14, 08:07 PM
Quote from: freeskiguy on 03/15/14, 10:32 AM
the beauty of debate is education. A sideways TG can form near rocks and morph snow near but also away from rocks. Also of course shallow areas created by bigger rock and wind erosion. Edit to add. It really doesn't matter who is wrong or right, which offen depends on Pov, just that the solutions that are reached benifit the community as a whole and not simply serve  greed and ego.


Wait wut? 


Title: Re: Avy in Great Scott Bowl?
Post by: Snoqualmonix on 03/16/14, 08:59 PM
Quote from: JCK on 03/16/14, 08:07 PM
Wait wut? 


For reals. 

Wrong or right? Solutions?  Greed?  Ego?  I read this thread simply as a PSA about another post-event observation in some of our local terrain.  But then again I might have missed something.


Title: Re: Avy in Great Scott Bowl?
Post by: Gregg_C on 03/16/14, 10:14 PM
Quote from: freeskiguy on 03/16/14, 09:31 PM
  For example, recent data suggects that pros tend to under estimate avy size potential and over estimate their ability of control, as in over confidence. While mother nature  just does her thing.


Interesting Chris.  Care to provide us with the research and source for this tidbit?


Title: Re: Avy in Great Scott Bowl?
Post by: Jim Oker on 03/16/14, 10:35 PM
Quote from: Gregg_C on 03/16/14, 10:14 PM
Interesting Chris.  Care to provide us with the research and source for this tidbit?
I'd be quite curious to see this too. Or is this perhaps a case of confirmation bias (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias)?


Title: Re: Avy in Great Scott Bowl?
Post by: BillK on 03/17/14, 10:26 AM
It doesn't look like anyone knows what the hell your beef is this time...


Title: Re: Avy in Great Scott Bowl?
Post by: Jim Oker on 03/17/14, 01:17 PM
Quote from: freeskiguy on 03/17/14, 09:43 AM
Oct. 2013 ''the avalanche review'' page 10. ''lessons learned: Gnfac professional development workshop examines take-away messages from near-incidents in the field'' by Andrew Kiefer.
Is this info available online somewhere? From a hasty hunt, I've only come up with this (http://www.americanavalancheassociation.org/tar/TAR32_1_Cover.pdf), which doesn't include that page. If it's not available online, are you able to provide a bit more info on what these takeaway messages are, and what sort of experience or data the takeaways are based on? Thanks.


Title: Re: Avy in Great Scott Bowl?
Post by: flowing alpy on 03/17/14, 02:37 PM
get back to the great scott stories, take the squabble to tgr where i can join in proper.
bobby


Title: Re: Avy in Great Scott Bowl?
Post by: T. Eastman on 03/17/14, 04:11 PM
It's St. Paddy's day, give Great Scot a break...


Title: Re: Avy in Great Scott Bowl?
Post by: Splitter on 03/17/14, 08:11 PM
Is that the chute between The Tooth and Bryant?


Title: Re: Avy in Great Scott Bowl?
Post by: Lowell_Skoog on 03/17/14, 08:36 PM
Quote from: Splitter on 03/17/14, 08:11 PM
Is that the chute between The Tooth and Bryant?


It's the chute on the southeast side of The Tooth. So it's farther away from Bryant. I think it's the chute used by climbers in summer to access the South Face of The Tooth.


Title: Re: Avy in Great Scott Bowl?
Post by: Gregg_C on 03/18/14, 01:06 PM
Quote from: freeskiguy on 03/17/14, 09:43 AM
Oct. 2013 ''the avalanche review'' page 10. ''lessons learned: Gnfac professional development workshop examines take-away messages from near-incidents in the field'' by Andrew Kiefer. I answered your guestions, will you answer mine? Will this lead to a valid discussion that leads to a solution to some of the questions i have raised? Or will i be accused of conducting a personal vendetta,asked to start a heli-hate web site, 'cause that's what i am right,  labeled a harasser and now being accused of implying that nwac is intentionally mis-leading the public? If education  is to win out, lets replace hype with the transparency of truth. Yes Jim, understanding tribal bias is a good starting point and why i often bring it up. 


Thanks Chris.  I was genuinely interested in discovering the source for your post.   There were two tragic deaths of avalanche forecasters last year (Utah and Montana) and I thought it may have been connected to those events.  We all want to learn here and your comment lacked a source that we could all read about and form our own opinions.  Most of us are curious and want to be the safest backcountry skiers we can.  Sharing and learning from others is always the best approach.


Title: Re: Avy in Great Scott Bowl?
Post by: pipedream on 03/18/14, 02:01 PM
The side of the pyramid point facing the ski area near on the north tip of Chair Pk. appears to have slid big yesterday. I heard Patrol had a hand in that one, but I'm not entirely sure why except maybe to protect those returning from the very far reaches of the ski area-accessible BC. IIRC, the path heads straight down to Source Lake.


Title: Re: Avy in Great Scott Bowl?
Post by: snoqpass on 03/18/14, 02:42 PM
Quote from: pipedream on 03/18/14, 02:01 PM
The side of the pyramid point facing the ski area near on the north tip of Chair Pk. appears to have slid big yesterday. I heard Patrol had a hand in that one, but I'm not entirely sure why except maybe to protect those returning from the very far reaches of the ski area-accessible BC. IIRC, the path heads straight down to Source Lake.

Patrol had nothing to do with it


Title: Re: Avy in Great Scott Bowl?
Post by: pipedream on 03/18/14, 04:31 PM
Good to know. I wouldn't want to be close to that thing whatsoever. Absolutely hudge.

The usual zones beyond the gates which climax annually have now been covered by a few inches of snow. Sliders beware!

(https://scontent-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/t1.0-9/1981750_10102876533750208_1057949801_n.jpg)


Title: Re: Avy in Great Scott Bowl?
Post by: Good2Go on 03/18/14, 04:45 PM
Egads, can you believe how they're standing on that hang fire! And it's sitting right on top of that never abating PWL too!  Those guys are obviously totally clueless!  This unique snowpack it totally unpredictable and must be tamed!  Too bad we can't bomb it all to dirt.  


Title: Re: Avy in Great Scott Bowl?
Post by: Mattski on 03/23/14, 09:16 PM
Quote from: freeskiguy on 03/18/14, 07:02 PM
greg, i hope you can understand that many of us are concerned when we see clients out on dangerous days in avy terrain and feel the pain when we hear of a client or guide death on such a day. It is only natural to want to find a solution.   


FSG
I am curious why you are only concerned for the clients and not the rest of the general public out doing the same thing? Are there more clients than recreationalists in the Methow? What exactly are the old locals doing that everyone else should know? Since you are calling out individuals by name I think you should use your real name so we can face the accuser.

I looked at the US Avi fatalities for the last 5 years(avalanche.org-accident database) and there have been only two guided avalanche accidents that resulted in fatalities both in AK. So out of 24 deaths in the US this year, only a guide was killed, not the clients. Two years before in the same operation in AK another guide died with a client. Your specific references to choices of guided parties that did not result in an accident seem to be speculation about their decision making process.

I believe your avalanche & snowpack observations are excellent and helpful then over-reach when judging professionals. The Avalanche Review article does not separate out snow professionals with little or a lot of experience. That group includes ski patrol, DOT and guides. Pro Patrollers are almost certain to be caught and possibly injured in an accident if they work for up to 10 years due to their constant exposure to actual avalanche happening during control work. When you go through the avalanche accident database you see the professional getting caught and killed are from ski patrols working avalanche control. This part of the job statistically is on par with Alaska fishing in terms of hazard and the likelihood of injury.

Your narrow focus a few guides in WA Pass obscures the fact that few accidents happen in a guided setting. Those that do rarely result in injury. Some people post about their near misses on TAY and some don't. While the learning from the accident is a great opportunity, not everyone feels compelled to do so and that is what makes our right to free speech so great.


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