Phantom avy info? 04/06/11

Good to hear everyone made it home. I look forward to learning from the details once they're available (no rush!). Some of us had discussed trying for the Slot on Sunday, but backed off and went elsewhere at the Pass due to some concern about sun and new snow on the approach/deproach. But I cannot judge the decisions of this group w/o having been there yesterday, beyond judging that it's great that Marcus expressed willingness to share what he deems "mistakes" of the group. Maybe it's "NW nice" to give them time to share rather than trying to fill the vacuum, but it does seem like a sensible way to encourage others who may have had scary incidents to share their stories as well. In the meantime, there's plenty of room in Random Tracks for discussions of what folks are seeing and thinking regarding the current snowpack.

But would the victims still have found themselves here if the community did a better job in general of sharing info about good safe options up at the Pass? I don't know.

Well, I've seen reports from Marcus indicating that he knows about plenty of other spots at the Pass, including spots that I considered as we pondered alternatives for Sunday. Some of them are even in guidebooks. Check out Burgdorfer's coverage of the Pass area, for instance (hint - several tours; Snoqualmie Peak is not one of them...). Buy a used copy of the 100 XC ski tours for more. There is plenty of info out there, yes, including over a decade of TRs here. So I don't see that some more Pass location TRs would have changed the story here, but perhaps Marcus will argue differently. But in any case, it strikes me as a bit irrational to go to a spot that's especially hazardous on a given day simply because you don't know of a less hazardous spot - sure, it might happen, but I feel exactly zero responsibility for someone else's irrational decisions. Why would I even think that providing a little info would improve their approach to decisions? Add to that the fact that any "stashes" that involve good skiing will have avalanche hazard (if you can have fun skiing it in fresh snow conditions, the hazard is there!), and you realize that there can be no such thing as "the guide to the really fun yet safe stashes at the Pass." Sure, there is a hazard spectrum, but it strikes me that the spectrum still remains something for each party to be determining for themselves on the day of their tour, and not something to pull from some handy online cheat sheet. Still, to show community spirit, I'll reveal a "safe" stash here and now. When I'm especially wigged by the snowpack, I go XC skiing at Gold Creek and stop well short of where the first avalanche path comes down to cross the summer trail. Or I go hike Mt Si or some such... ETA: should we judge people who post TRs on the Phantom to be responsible, due to the heralded "TAY lemming" effect? Perhaps there should be no TRs?

Wow - I'm really glad everyone got down last night. Great job, rescuers! It's sobering to hear you were involved, Marcus. I'm on the edges waiting to hear the analysis.

This a very interesting thread. Comments are surprising. ::)Like the one below by Plinko


"I blame this all on Alpental's ridiculously early midweek closure. They should have been open to providing a reasonable inbounds option. "

I fail to see how Alpental's decision should effect the decision making of BC skiers ??? ??? ???
A decision was made to place themselves in a dangerous avalanche path that resulted in injury and considerable exposure to rescue presonnel.

Fellow skiers please be diligent in your risk assessments. Keep yourself, friends and rescue pesonnel safe.

The NWAC report from the night before simply stated not to go out (in other words). Extreme danger. I'd like to know the decision making process in going out on a south facing slope with all the fresh on top of the rain crust.

The NWAC report from the night before simply stated not to go out (in other words).  Extreme danger.

???
Here's what the NWAC archive has for Tuesday's forecast:

Tuesday to Wednesday morning: High avalanche danger above 4000 feet and considerable below. Danger increasing Tuesday night to Wednesday morning.

Wednesday afternoon and night: Decreasing high danger above 6000 feet and considerable below.


Snowpack Analysis



A strong storm began Monday morning, depositing some 10 to 25 inches of new snow in most areas. Strong winds near ridge top caused widespread unstable layers to form on most lee slopes, especially higher terrain. Heavy snowfall and daytime warming produced some natural avalanches Monday, however many of these paths have already reloaded with new unstable layers.

Unstable conditions were reported at the Mt Baker and Stevens ski area by field professionals early Tuesday where ski triggered and exposive releases had extensive propagation and were sensitive, despite significant new snow settlement rates. In general, most slides were involving storm snow layers up to 1.5 ft deep, but with good propagation and running long distances.

There remains a threat for some slides releasing in new snow layers to penetrate a wet snow layer of some 1 to 2 feet thick that may be buried 1 to 3 feet below the surface. Any slides involving these layers would be big and very dangerous, possibly destructive in nature, however predicting which slope would or could slide to these deeper layers is difficult.

Therefore we are not recommending travel in avalanche terrain until these unstable wet snow layers strengthen and new unstable layers stabilize.


Detailed Forecasts

Tuesday to Wednesday morning


Moderate orographic snow showers and moderate to strong westerly crest level winds should maintain or build further unstable wind slab layers on lee slopes, especially northwest to southeast facing slopes. Another frontal system is expected later Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday. This should cause increasing and strong winds with moderate to heavy snowfall at low freezing levels. This weather will build new unstable layers on similar aspects, mainly northeast to southeast. Natural or human triggered avalanches should remain likely through early Wednesday, especially on steep open lee slopes. Avalanche releases may step down to or entrain underlying wet snow layers making some isolated large slides possible. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended Tuesday through Wednesday morning.


Wednesay afternoon and night


Gradually decreasing showers are expected later Wednesday and Wednesday night. This should allow for a slow decrease in danger as previous unstable layers slowly consolidate and settle. However, any sun breaks being received later Wednesday may quickly make recent snow unstable and cause wet snow avalanches on steep exposed slopes. Some of these may be quite large in areas that have received significant recent storm snow amounts. Also, large cornice formations may become weak and fail during the warmest part of the day. These conditions will make careful route-finding essential later Wednesday.

So "travel not recommended" - check. "Extreme" - appears not.

I think we all share the desire to understand the group's thought process, including what they saw on the ground. I think Charlie is exactly right - give Marcus time to honor his promise to share.

Marcus (and the rest involved),
Happy to hear that you all made it out, not happy to hear about he injuries, some of them sounded rather sever.
I hope everyone heels quickly and finds themselves back on snow in the future.
Hats of to the SAR, and anyone else that was involved in what sounds like a complicated rescue situation.
as others have mentioned, I also look forward to rearing your trip report.
Given the time of the incident and when everyone was finally off the mountain, it would also be interesting to hear about the extraction as well (if possible).

@ Micah: I was not referring to the Phantom Slide as a secret stash.

@ Jim: I apologize somewhat for trolling you guys, yes I know safety is subjective and risk assessments are personal. Just turning things around a bit on those who may be critical post-hoc -- please suggest (non-flippantly, if possible) some alternatives that you genuinely think would have been better choices yesterday. I'm curious what you think, and no I'm not interested in book suggestions, and no I am not clueless about where or when to go skiing.

I am 100% sure Plinko was kidding.

Back on point:
I can see how Marcus might have other things on his mind right now, rather than giving us a detailed account. A big ride may change your perspective and focus, etc. even without friends getting hurt... On the other hand, I also share deep interest in the details, when he is ready.

My best wishes go to everyone involved and kudos to SAR
Ivo

Plinko's kidding was in reference to a thread about Alpental being closed April 5.

Glad everyone survived. Sorry to hear about the injuries, first the avy ride and then 2K feet in a sled with a broken femur (ouch!)

Good work by everyone, rescuers and party members alike. I can only imagine seeing 3 out of your party of 5 being swept away. We are not done with the scary snowpack this year, I think Joedabaker's comment sums it: "I just don't want to be called upon to search for another person this year"

Marcus, I am thankful that you and your party survived the incident and that everyone made it out safely. I wish everyone a complete and speedy recovery, both physically and mentally .......

Hats off to SAR for their efforts and their safe return.

Thanks for your willingness to share this incident with the group, I am confident we will all learn from your experience.

Gary

I'm sure I'll catch hell for saying this, but I can't help but question why we have to "learn something" from someone's unfortunate accident. The internet has turned us into a bunch of voyeurs. Marcus is under no obligation to make public what was most likely a very personal, traumatic experience. I really hope he posts nothing at all, and we're left to use our own judgement in deciding whether to go skiing or not.

I'm sure I'll catch hell for saying this, but I can't help but question why we have to "learn something" from someone's unfortunate accident. The internet has turned us into a bunch of voyeurs. Marcus is under no obligation to make public what was most likely a very personal, traumatic experience.  I really hope he posts nothing at all, and we're left to use our own judgement in deciding whether to go skiing or not.

Not from me. I couldn't agree with you more.
People want NWAC to be their go/no go when its so generalized as to be highly suspect as a go tool.
People blaming lack of safe secret stash TR's forcing them to ski risky terrain as a result. OMG!
People expecting people who have been in avalanches to blog about their experiences so others can pontificate and judge and critique and if you don't ,you're not being community minded " so others can learn from your mistakes"

Jumped up jerk legislators from Beastialityville promoting bills making poachers criminals when they should be protecting poor horses.

Make you own decisions.

As with others, I too am grateful that your outcome was life.  The good news here is that husbands returned to their wives, boyfriends to their girlfriends, a father returned to his daughter, and sons to their parents. 

Be grateful for the lesson and the opportunity to return to your life with maybe a new appreciation for what you have.  

Often we think as I once did, it won't happen to me.  I had a wake up call a few year back being the only one caught in a slide while others stood safely on the side.  I was fortunate enough to walk away from it but it scared the Jesus out of me at the time.

I wish you all a speedy recovery and happy days ahead with your families.

Marcus, glad you and the rest of your group are back safe! Hope those that were injured heal up fast.

I'm sure I'll catch hell for saying this, but I can't help but question why we have to "learn something" from someone's unfortunate accident. The internet has turned us into a bunch of voyeurs. Marcus is under no obligation to make public what was most likely a very personal, traumatic experience.  I really hope he posts nothing at all, and we're left to use our own judgement in deciding whether to go skiing or not.

I sometimes think about Tremper's confidence vs time graph in these situations. One's confidence in avalanche terrain gradually rises over time with periodic crashes when something bad happens. An avalanche ride, serious injury, death of a friend, etc. I know in my own avy career I have made a few mistakes, had a close call or two, and probably gotten lucky. But I haven't taken a ride or been injured. I know that's no guarantee it won't happen in the future though.

I try to pay attention to incidents like Dan's because I hope that I can vicariously learn something from the terrible experience he went through. As a newbie I would hear stories of backcountry mishaps and think "geez, why were they out there in those conditions." These days I instead try to understand what similar types of decisions I have made in the past, or might make in the future. I know and respect Dan so it definitely hit close to home to learn about his accident. And sure, if someone gets avalanched on an Extreme day then maybe we can write it off to Darwin, but most cases aren't that black and white.

No one should be expected to broadcast their decisions or mistakes on a public forum. But if they do offer it up, I try to pay attention and learn what I can. My hope is that maybe my own personal confidence in avalanche terrain may rise a bit more slowly, with hopefully fewer major mishaps along the way.

-Doug

I try to pay attention to incidents like Dan's because I hope that I can vicariously learn something from the terrible experience he went through. As a newbie I would hear stories of backcountry mishaps and think "geez, why were they out there in those conditions."  These days I instead try to understand what similar types of decisions I have made in the past, or might make in the future. I know and respect Dan so it definitely hit close to home to learn about his accident. And sure, if someone gets avalanched on an Extreme day then maybe we can write it off to Darwin, but most cases aren't that black and white.

No one should be expected to broadcast their decisions or mistakes on a public forum. But if they do offer it up, I try to pay attention and learn what I can. My hope is that maybe my own personal confidence in avalanche terrain may rise a bit more slowly, with hopefully fewer major mishaps along the way.

Well put. I don't expect anyone to share the details of an incident, but surely do appreciate when they do. I'm always eager to read the details of avy incidents, and yes, I try to humbly ponder where my own decisions might tend to cross paths with what I read.

Scotsman has a few good points, including the implication that if Marcus shares the details and that opens up a judgment-fest, it will have a chilling effect on others who might otherwise open up and share more info that might help teach the rest of us, for when we make our own decisions.

People blaming lack of safe secret stash TR's forcing them to ski risky terrain as a result. OMG!

That's not really what I said or meant, but yeah that would be ridiculous. Just turning things around a bit on critics.

Wow, glad to hear you guys got out OK. Sorry about the injuries. I am looking forward to hearing about it since it is a place I know many of us have spent a lot of time. I just did a search for the last time I had a close one - yep, April.

I am glad to hear that everyone is going to be ok.


REMINDER: none of them involved owes anyone any kind of account. The sideline reporting and armchair QBing is completely out of hand. The expectation you need to be "told" about it is completley ridiculous.

The Mountaineering community publishes a book each year detailing climbing accidents. Victims and rescuers are not required to contribute, but many do to benefit the community.

Reading through incidents is a useful tool as a individual to learn from other peoples' mistakes and also see patterns which may indicate a need to modify SOPs.

REMINDER: none of them involved owes anyone any kind of account. The sideline reporting and armchair QBing is completely out of hand. The expectation you need to be "told" about it is completley ridiculous.

I'm not sure anyone here "expects"...
Most have been pretty polite about encouraging an account if Marcus feels so inclined.

As far I am concerned, an accurately accounted history can be a good thing as it has the potential to help us from repeating it. The knowledge we stand to gain might help us in the future in our evaluation of conditions, terrain and etc. We are still responsible for our own good judgement and actions, and the outcome of these assessments.

That said, this is up to Marcus and or other members of his crew that day.
Either way, the choice to post is in their hands and I agree with the thought that they are not obligated to anyone.

I'm not sure anyone here "expects"...

I beg to differ. Hit "ALL", start at the top, read each post and you will see there is a clear expectation for personal accountability in his decision to ski.

Hmm, regarding the expectation that there will be a detailed report, when I followed your instructions and scanned the entire thread just now, all I see is folks responding to Marcus' first post on the thread where he wrote:

Much more detail to follow.

Plus a few posts with armchair quarterbacking, which is a separarate issue that seems to have died down.

I think it frustrates us all to see knowledgable and professional friends caught in these situations but I believe it is only fair to be patient enough to let them have their say before castigating them.

Amen to that brother. No need to make a stew out of a bunch of hear say and conjecture.

Glad everyone made it out safely despite a few being broken. Here's hoping the broken mend quickly and are able to return soon to the sport we all love.

While many are looking for the answers to how this incident evolved and the details, none are owed or expected to me. When these events happen to experienced backcountry travelers it is usually due to the intersection of confidence, desire, complacency, and sometimes "bad luck". Those who stand to gain the most are the individuals involved.

I beg to differ. Hit "ALL", start at the top, read each post and you will see there is a clear expectation for personal accountability in his decision to ski.

I rear read the posts, again.
Seems to me that most of the posts like Amar's are showing interest in reading a trip report, if and when Marcus chooses to post.

Call it a difference of interpretation and semantics I guess.

This first portion will be primarily a description of the climb.  I'll follow with the slide and the ensuing self-rescue and organized SAR response, from my perspective.  A more thorough analysis of the decisions and mistakes will follow.  I deliberately went with a "trip report" style format in this part, to try to capture the mood of our trip up so that I could better understand where my decision making failed.

To be clear, I am writing this as much for me and my friends and family as I am for anyone else.  The lessons I take from this will be more deeply ingrained because of this process.  If others can learn from it, so much the better.

****************

The Climb

I’ve said for years that if I ever had to use my avalanche transceiver, I’ve screwed up big time.  But here I am, having just hacked a wad of snow the size of a tangerine out of my throat, switching to receive and hoping to hear a sound.  I’ve screwed up big time.

--

Roger, Doug, Dan, Drew and I met at the Mercer Island Park & Ride a little after 5 a.m. on Wednesday, aiming to get in a dawn patrol at Snoqualmie Pass and be back in town by 10:30.  We piled into Doug & Dan’s cars and headed up to Alpental, excited for fresh snow and new company.  Roger and I had already discussed the telemetry, expecting upward of two feet of snow on the upper slopes and knowing that any notions we’d had of skiing the Slot or the Snot were not going to happen.  The plan was to head up and see what we found – beyond that we didn’t discuss it much.

We arrived at the maintenance lot and hit the trail by 6:15.  Trailbreaking was arduous, Roger plowing ahead through 12-18” of light dry snow, with pockets up to waist deep.  We knew this wasn’t going to be a one-hour blast to the top and switched trailbreakers from time to time as we climbed through the trees to the left of the Phantom.  We could feel the layers in the top few feet of the snowpack, with the obvious mushy rain soaked snow about a pole length down.

Progress through the trees eased as we got farther up, the SW slopes of Snoqualmie rolling back below the steeper upper pitches above the entrance to the Snot couloir.  The snow remained excellent and, while we could get the new snow to break in soft slabs on the steeper kick turns, we continued up, spreading out as we began to encounter steeper sections.  Roger was breaking trail again, doing a good job of picking a line with minimal exposure to the Snot entrance.

It was now 9:00, the first 2600 feet having taken almost three hours.  We had a brief discussion about timing, as Doug and I both had to be back in town before the others.  We talked about continuing up another couple hundred feet to the Slot entrance, just to look, then returning back down.  I felt I had enough time to make it work, so we pressed on.

We traversed back to the right, climbing away from the ridge.  The trail breaking was easier near the ridge, maybe 6-12”, and the wind had picked up.  I put on my thicker gloves and gave Roger some space.  He pointed out a couple of features to avoid on the trip down – places he’d seen slide activity in his past trips.

As we wrapped a little farther away from the ridge, we came into deeper pockets of snow, particularly in the many small gully/concavity features on the upper slopes.  The snow seemed a bit more reactive on the kickturns, the soft slabs a little more cohesive.  No whumphing or shooting cracks, but the exposed upper slopes were definitely showing some new signs.

Roger cut out across the bottom of a steeper section, perhaps 60 feet wide.  I waited in a pocket of trees for him to clear it then, when he put in a kickturn below a few thick trees, I zipped over to him quickly, so that I could watch him climb back across in the other direction.  I checked behind me and saw that Dan had followed me across the slope and was with me at the turn.  Too late now, I thought, and then I looked back to Roger and the crack rips out above him and he is falling and I am falling and we have screwed up big time.

Marcus, part one of your accident is intense (and is the nightmare of every skier) :'(

I'm glad that you and everyone else made it back alive.

Thank you so much for sharing Marcus. I'm saying that as both an avalanche educator & fellow backcountry skier - one who has made my share of mistakes but has just been luckier.  I am  still susceptible to making such mistakes again. That's why your story has such great value in the telling - it will give cause & pause for reflection by many. 

Thank you Marcus, I am sorry you guys found yourselves in that position. It is a great lesson in communication, observations and the impacts it has.

I wish you all a seedy recovery!

Marcus – I am glad that the outcome to your adventure was not as bad as it could have been. From having personally gone through a similar situation I would just like to make a couple of comments. Hopefully by telling your story you will get others to think about their own decision making. It may be hard to believe now but in time your memories of the details will begin to fade. How much you post online is entirely up to you but for your own benefit I suggest that while everything is still fresh in your mind you write a journal including all the small details of that day and most importantly your emotions as the events unfolded. I don’t think you will regret it. You are probably going to hear a lot of second guessing from the peanut gallery but I would be willing to bet that anyone who has spent any amount of time in the backcountry has made their own fair share of bad decisions with the only difference being that they were fortunate enough to get away with it. Hopefully you will soon be back in the saddle a little older and a little wiser.